Update: The original version of this report incorrectly cited I Still Believe as a sequel to I Can Only Imagine. It has been corrected below.
This week’s report continues our look ahead into March with a focus on three new releases slated for Friday the 13th of that month.
Bloodshot
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million
PROS:
- Vin Diesel’s presence could aid appeal to general moviegoers not familiar with his comic book character or its parent brand, Valiant Comics.
- The lack of new releases aiming for adult male audiences in early-to-mid March will be a competitive advantage for this pic if reviews come in on the positive side.
CONS:
- As mentioned, very few potential moviegoers are familiar with the character. Initial social media footprints reflect a potentially front-loaded performance for genre fans, with certain metrics comparable more to last year’s Hellboy reboot than Diesel’s xXx or Riddick franchise entries or films with established IP like Tomb Raider or Pacific Rim: Uprising.
I Still Believe
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- As the spiritual (no pun intended) follow-up from the team behind 2018’s I Can Only Imagine, faith-based audiences and fans of that $83.5 million domestic breakout are expected to show up for singer Jeremy Camp’s story.
- With nearly a full month before Easter weekend, positive word of mouth could again help generate healthy legs into April — particularly given the lack of other faith films opening in this corridor.
CONS:
- It remains to be seen whether this film’s focus on a romantic angle will inspire the kind of buzz as I Can Only Imagine‘s broader appeal or narrow the target audience a bit more.
My Spy
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million
PROS:
- Star Dave Bautista will hope to bring along his older male and family fans fostered by his turns as Drax in Disney’s Marvel films.
- Early trailer and social media trends are comparable to Playing with Fire, suggesting initially moderate family appeal with the potential to develop staying power during the Spring Break window.
CONS:
- Multiple release delays aren’t typically an encouraging sign, while proximity to Pixar’s Onward (opening one week earlier) and Disney’s Mulan (two weeks later) will be challenging given the shared target audiences.
Estimated Location Counts
- The Gentlemen (2,000 on January 24)
- The Last Full Measure (Moderate on January 24)
- The Turning (2,500 on January 24)
- Gretel and Hansel (2,400 on January 31)
- The Rhythm Section (2,800 on January 31)
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $11,000,000 | -8% | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $35,000,000 | -8% | STX |
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,500,000 | -4% | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $32,000,000 | -6% | Universal |
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Fantasy Island | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 | $44,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 2/14/2020 | The Photograph | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $35,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Sonic the Hedgehog | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $86,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 | $17,800,000 | STX | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Call of the Wild | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 2/28/2020 | The Invisible Man | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 3/6/2020 | Onward | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 | $227,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/6/2020 | The Way Back | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $43,500,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 3/13/2020 | Bloodshot | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $14,000,000 | NEW | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $36,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia |
| 3/13/2020 | I Still Believe | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,500,000 | NEW | $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 | $49,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate |
| 3/13/2020 | My Spy | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | NEW | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $36,000,000 | NEW | STX |
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