Early Weekend Estimates: FAST X Pacing for Studio-Projected $67M+ Domestic, $320M Global Bow

Photo Credits: Universal ("Fast X")

Saturday Update: Universal reports that Fast X earned $28.0 million from its domestic opening day Friday, inclusive of Thursday’s $7.5 million preview earnings mentioned below.

The overall opening day gross registers 6.2 percent behind F9, which pulled $29.86 million in June 2021 as theatrical recovery during the pandemic was in its nascent stages.

For the weekend, the studio estimates $22.43 million for Saturday and $16.82 million on Sunday, for a total estimate of $67.25 million. With Friday having a slightly stronger increase from Thursday, though, independent projections indicate a weekend closer to $69 million or higher is possible.

Globally, Fast X is on course for a $320 million debut through Sunday, which would be the second best launch of 2023 behind Universal’s own Super Mario Bros. Movie. The latest Furious franchise sequel is pacing for an estimated $252.68 million international bow, including previews.

In China, the film added $11 million on Friday for a $37.2 million Wednesday-through-Friday total, estimated by the studio to reach $64 million through Saturday.

In like-for-like markets, Fast X is registering 80 percent ahead of F9, 38 percent ahead of Hobbs & Shaw, 12 percent below The Fate of the Furious, and 16 percent behind Furious 7.

The studio notes that this is the second biggest non-superhero live-action global opening since 2019, trailing only Avatar: The Way of Water.

Back on the domestic front, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 does indeed remain a strong presence in the market despite competition from and premium screen loss to Dom Toretto and fam.

The latest Marvel Cinematic Universe hit from James Gunn added $8.374 million on Friday, down a relatively soft 46 percent from last Friday under the circumstances, and hitting $242.9 million domestically through 15 days. Again, Friday’s performance is generally in line with final forecasts entering the weekend which called for a $32.9 million third frame.

Friday Morning Update: Universal reports this morning that Fast X scored $7.5 million in domestic previews beginning at 2pm in 3,250 theaters on Thursday.

As the comparison game goes, that registers 5.6 percent ahead of F9‘s $7.1 million back in June 2021 when theatrical re-openings and audience returns to cinemas in the middle of the pandemic were relatively nascent.

More recently, John Wick: Chapter 4 took in $8.9 million from Thursday previews beginning at 3pm back in March, Creed III earned $5.45 million from Wednesday Early Access and Thursday combined, and Black Adam grossed $7.6 million from 4pm Thursday onward shows last October.

Thursday’s result is in line with prior expectations and forecasts, leaving some projection math to be done. Given the earlier start and expected franchise front-loading, an updated range of $58 million to $67 million is in the cards, with likely outcomes on the lower end of that spectrum.

F9 bowed to a $70 million weekend domestically two years ago.

Internationally, the studio has not updated early grosses yet, but the film opens in 84 markets this weekend with 80,000 screens and 25,000 venues in tow. On Wednesday, the film bowed in 12 early markets, including China, Korea, Germany, and France.

Photo Credits: Universal ("Fast X")