Long Range Box Office Forecast: TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR

The unexpected tentpole release of the fall, Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour, is shaping up as a welcome blockbuster performer for exhibition. This week’s report takes an early peek at how it could shake up the box office.

The Eras Tour

AMC Theatres / Variance Films

October 13, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $96M-$145M

PROS:

  • Taylor Swift has stood at the peak of pop culture this year with the first round of her wildly popular Eras tour, estimated back in August to be the first-ever tour to generate over $1B.
  • Early pre-sales for this theatrical event, running on multiple weekends through October and early November, generated demand comparable to major opening weekends from the Marvel and Star Wars franchises.
  • As exhibitors have continued to jump on board and add showtimes, including those with premium formats, The Eras Tour has posted numerous sellouts already.
  • Ticket prices will be well above the average of standard film releases, with admissions going for $19.89 or $13.13 (references to her album titles).

CONS:

  • As a highly unique release relying mostly on promotion from Swift and her social media channels so far, all bets are off in terms of traditional tracking—especially with a distribution strategy that sees the film playing primarily on weekends (for now) and lacking a traditional marketing campaign.
  • “Swifties,” as her fans call themselves, drove the initial onslaught of rabid ticket sales upon Swift’s own announcement of the film. It remains to be seen how interest will reach outside of her loyal, yet extensive, fan base.
  • Adding to the volatility of forecasts, any potential extension of the theatrical run into the holiday season could be a factor to watch for.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/14/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
9/22/2023 Barbie (IMAX Release)         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023 Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023 Expend4bles $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 -16% $24,000,000 – $37,500,000 -16% Lionsgate
9/22/2023 It Lives Inside         NEON
9/29/2023 The Creator $15,000,000 – $22,000,000 -5% $40,000,000 – $78,000,000 -5% 20th Century Studios
9/29/2023 Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $14,000,000 – $42,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/29/2023 PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $48,000,000   Paramount Pictures
9/29/2023 Saw X $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $22,000,000 – $35,000,000   Lionsgate
9/29/2023 Untitled Universal Event Film         Universal Pictures
10/6/2023 The Exorcist: Believer $18,000,000 – $27,000,000 +5% $41,000,000 – $69,000,000 +5% Universal Pictures
10/6/2023 Foe         Amazon Studios
10/6/2023 Cat Person         Rialto Pictures
10/6/2023 Freeland         Freelance
10/6/2023 Untitled Focus Features Film         Focus Features
10/13/2023 Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour $96,000,000 – $145,000,000   TBD   AMC Theatres / Variance Films

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

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