Long Range Box Office Forecast: WONKA

Photo by Jaap Buittendijk. © 2023 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

This week’s update takes a preliminary look at one of December’s key tentpoles, plus updates to upcoming releases over the Thanksgiving window and beyond.

Wonka

Warner Bros. Pictures

December 15, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $125M-$210M

PROS:

  • Timothée Chalamet is arguably this prequel’s biggest asset in terms of inspiring appeal among Gen Z audiences, and he’ll be able to promote the film now that the SAG-AFTRA strike has ended.
  • In general, the franchise’s familiarity and popularity should resonate with families as the original 1971 Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory as well as 2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory have kept the IP alive and well across multiple generations of moviegoers.
  • With no competing releases sharing the same weekend, plus an absence of tentpoles in early December and mixed expectations for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka will need only healthy word of mouth to help it build a leggy, back-loaded holiday run.

CONS:

  • Musicals are challenging to sell in the modern market, and older IP has seen its share of modest box office performances in recent times. The crossroads of the two previously fell below bullish industry expectations with 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns, though that film ultimately drew out a strong multiplier and respectable global gross.
  • Competition for family audiences could be a factor one week later when Universal and Illumination’s Migration opens ahead of Christmas. Historically, multiple films have co-existed around this corridor, but that remains a more challenging assumption to make during a time when consumers (especially families) are becoming more selective about their theatrical selections.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/16/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
11/22/2023 Napoleon $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 +11% $23,000,000 – $32,000,000 $57,000,000 – $77,500,000 +11% Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023 Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)           Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023 Wish $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $57,000,000 – $86,800,000 $165,000,000 – $289,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023 Godzilla Minus One $5,000,000 – $9,000,000     $9,000,000 – $18,000,000   Toho International
12/1/2023 Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé $27,000,000 – $36,000,000     $40,000,000 – $80,000,000   AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023 The Shift $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 NEW   $6,000,000 – $21,000,000 NEW Angel Studios
12/1/2023 Silent Night $4,000,000 – $9,000,000     $10,000,000 – $27,000,000   Lionsgate
12/8/2023 The Boy and the Heron           GKIDS
12/8/2023 Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)           NEON
12/8/2023 Poor Things (Limited)           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/15/2023 American Fiction (Limited)           MGM / MRC
12/15/2023 Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 8)           Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023 Wonka $25,000,000 – $35,000,000     $125,000,000 – $210,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

Photo by Jaap Buittendijk. © 2023 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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