LONG RANGE FORECAST: Can MUFASA: THE LION KING Break Out in a Crowded December Frame?

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Long Range Forecast — December 20, 2024

Mufasa: The Lion King | Disney

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $55M – $85M

Disney—not to mention cinemas—hopes for a return to pre-pandemic success levels with the mid-December release of Mufasa, a Lion King sequel directed by Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins. The latest in Disney’s series of reimaginings of some of its classic animated films, Mufasa has a lot to live up to Its immediate predecessor, director Jon Favreau’s photorealistic remake of The Lion King ($191.7M, domestic opening, $543.6M domestic total), was the second highest-grossing film of 2019 both domestically and worldwide, lagging behind only the juggernaut that was Avengers: Endgame. Though Mufasa isn’t expected to open near the heights of 2019’s The Lion King—which almost passed the $200M mark in three days—its holiday release should be beneficial, even as Disney continues to course-correct is recent box office trends. Engagement from the first teaser trailer has us bumping up our projections for this holiday corridor release.

Our opening weekend range of $55M – $85M range would put Mufasa roughly in line with 2014’s Maleficent ($69.4M), similarly a prequel addressing the backstory of the original film’s villain instead of a straight remake. (Per marketing, Mufasa’s childhood relationship with his eventual murderer, Scar, looks to be a major component of the film.)

Audiences choosing premium experiences for Mufasa could go a long way to building up the film’s box office, one surcharge at a time. That said, Mufasa will have to compete for those premium screens with Sony’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3, coming out the same day. Mufasa is the first in Disney’s line of remakes to come out around the holidays; prior to now, the sweet spot for the franchise has been Spring, specifically the month of March, which saw the release of 2017’s Beauty and the Beast, 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, 2015’s Cinderella, and 2019’s Dumbo. But 2019’s The Lion King was also an anomaly, coming out in July, and that gamble certainly worked out.

Though Mufasa lands smack-dab in the middle of a crowded market, it and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 are the last wide-release kid’s movies the January 31 release of Universal’s Dog Man. (Sony recently moved Paddington in Peru from mid-January to February 14.) An opening on the lower end of predictions could be counteracted by strong holds, as was the case with last year’s The Little Mermaid ($95.5M domestic opening, $298.1M domestic total). It’s looking like the same will be true for Wicked Part 1, which came out on November 22—like Mufasa, landing the week before a major holiday—and is looking at a potential nine-figure pull over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend.

Tracking Updates [as of 11/29]