Long Range Forecast: FLY ME TO THE MOON

Courtesy of Sony Pictures

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Long Range Forecast — July 12, 2024

Fly Me to the Moon | Sony Pictures
Domestic Opening Weekend Range:
 $12-$20M (as of 6/14)

In a weekend largely occupied by holdovers, Fly Me to the Moon emerges as the sole wide release in the post-Fourth of July frame. While Despicable Me 4 should retain the top spot at the box office over the weekend, Fly Me to the Moon is looking like the clear #2 title over for that frame, against A24’s MaXXXine and Angel Studios’ Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot.

Fly Me to the Moon follows marketing guru Kelly Jones (Scarlett Johansson), who is tasked with fixing NASA’s public image during the 1960s Space Race before the infamous Apollo 11 moon landing in July of 1969. Missions collide when Jones complicates the task ahead for launch director Cole Davis (Channing Tatum). Deemed too important to fail, the White House directs Jones to stage and film an elaborate fake moon landing as a backup. The film marks director Greg Berlanti’s first theatrical release since 2018’s Love, Simon ($40.8M domestic/$66.7M global), like Fly Me to the Moon boasting elements of romance and comedy—if marketed to a younger (i.e. teen) audience.

Fly Me to the Moon marks the second theatrical release in Apple and Sony’s distribution partnership. The two companies teamed up for the first for last year’s release of Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, which opened domestically to $20.6M before finishing out its theatrical run at $61.5M in North America. There is little in common between Fly Me to the Moon and Napoleon, but we expect Napoleon‘s box office performance to reflect the high-end of box office expectations for the Tatum-Johansson vehicle.

A somewhat muted marketing campaign for Fly Me to the Moon has us expecting an opening weekend in the mid-teens. Univeral’s somber character piece, First Man (2018), also set against the Space Race, is the likeliest comparable title in terms of performance—despite the difference in tone and release date. First Man‘s $16M domestic debut and $44.9M run in North America is the closest benchmark to our current tracking for Fly Me to the Moon.

In the absence of much marketing from Sony and Apple, Fly Me To the Moon‘s best chance at drawing in curious moviegoers is probably the substantial star power of its leads. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum will have their work cut out for them in press junkets and the talk show circuit in hopes of Fly Me to the Moon standing out in an increasingly competitive July at the box office.

Tracking Updates [as of 6/14]

Release DateTitleOpening Weekend RangeDistributor
6/21/24The Bikeriders$7-$12MFocus Features
6/28/24Horizon: An American Saga$15-$25MWarner Bros.
6/28/24A Quiet Place: Day One$45-$55MParamount Pictures
7/3/24Despicable Me 4$65-$85M (3-Day)Universal Pictures / Illumination

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Courtesy of Sony Pictures
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