Long Range Forecast — May 30, 2025
Karate Kid: Legends | Sony / Columbia
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $45M
Rescheduled to follow on the heels of the final season of hit streaming series Cobra Kai, the cross-generational appeal of the Karate Kid franchise could generate a solid mid-summer hit for Sony. Initially scheduled for release in June 2024, Karate Kid: Legends was first pushed back due to that year’s Hollywood labor union strikes. The film’s second release date, in December 2024, was altered to this May so that the film would hit theaters after the final season of Cobra Kai, which finished up its run on Netflix earlier this year. Stars from Cobra Kai will appear in the film, along with original Karate Kid Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan from the 2010 reboot.
Ultimately, The Karate Kid: Legends‘ December 2024 release date was taken by Kraven the Hunter, which was swallowed up by the crowded holiday slate and topped out at just over $25M domestically. Our panel of analysts predicts a higher amount just for Karate Kid: Legends‘ opening frame, when its main competition for ticket sales will be holdovers from Memorial Day weekend (Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Lilo & Stitch, The Last Rodeo, and the wide expansion of A24’s Friendship); no other family-targeted wide release hits theaters until mid-June, with Universal’s live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon followed a week later by Pixar’s Elio.
Over the last decade, there have been a fair number of nostalgia-heavy, family-targeted franchise entries to hit theaters in the weeks immediately following Memorial Day, though unlike Karate Kid: Legends they tend to be either animation/live-action hybrids (2024’s The Garfield Movie – $24M domestic opening; 2021’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway – $10M domestic opening) or films that involve heavy use of CGI (2016’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $35.3M domestic opening; 2023’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts – $61M domestic opening). Other recent updates of ’80s classics include 2016’s Ghostbusters ($46M domestic opening; $128.3M domestic total), 2021’s Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($44M domestic opening, $129.3M domestic total), 2018’s The Predator ($24.6M domestic opening, $51M domestic total), 2015’s Poltergeist ($22.6M domestic opening, $47.4M domestic total), and last year’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M domestic opening, $294.1M domestic total)
Tracking Updates [as of May 9]
| 5/9 | Clown in a Cornfield | $2M – $4M | IFC Films |
| 5/9 | Shadow Force | $2M – $4M | Lionsgate |
| 5/9 | Juliet & Romeo | $2M – $4M | Briarcliff Entertainmenet |
| 5/16 | Final Destination: Bloodlines | $50M – $60M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/16 | Hurry Up Tomorrow | $2M – $4M | Lionsgate |
| 5/23 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | $65M – $75M (3-Day) $75M – $95M (4-Day) | Paramount |
| 5/23 | Friendship (Wide) | $2M – $4M | A24 |
| 5/23 | Lilo & Stitch | Briarcliff Entertainment | Disney |
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