Long Range Tracking: ‘Glass’ Could Be the Rare January Blockbuster

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This week’s report takes an early look at M. Night Shyamalan’s highly anticipated follow-up to Split and Unbreakable, slated for release on January 18, 2019.

Glass
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 80 million

PROS:

  • Split was a runaway hit two years ago when it exceeded expectations with a $40 million debut and leggy $138.3 million domestic total on the heels of strong word of mouth and critical reception. The film’s surprise twist connecting it to a previous Shyamalan hit left fans excited for the prospect of the long-discussed follow-up to Unbreakable after nearly two decades of waiting.
  • The return of Bruce Willis and Samuel L. Jackson as their Unbreakable characters, alongside James McAvoy and the tremendous praise he received for his Split performance, gives the sequel serious marquee appeal.
  • Superheroes are hotter than ever at the box office right now, and the promise of a unique, grounded action/thriller through the lens of Shyamalan could be very appealing to audiences looking for a fresh hook from the genre.
  • With plenty of distance between Christmas releases and February’s high profile titles, this is arguably the first and only tentpole release of January 2019.
  • Early Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging with nearly 78 percent of surveyed audiences indicating interest in seeing the film. That’s comparable to the 82 percent earned by Halloween when it was first tracked six weeks out from release.

CONS:

  • Those unfamiliar with Unbreakable may not be as excited by the connection between that film and Glass, although part of the impressive success of Split was its ability to capture a young adult audience on its own merits without the recognition of the first film in the trilogy.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace $3,000,000 20% $6,000,000 20% 1,900 Sony / Columbia
12/12/2018 Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release) n/a n/a Fox
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $14,000,000 -13% $50,000,000 -10% Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $15,000,000 7% $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $29,000,000 32% $130,000,000 44% Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $40,000,000 $350,000,000 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $55,000,000 $200,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen n/a n/a Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 $85,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 STX
1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 NEW $180,000,000 NEW Universal

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