Long Range Tracking: ‘How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World’

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The final report of 2018 takes an early look at the weekend of February 22, 2019 — currently slated with three wide releases. We’ll offer up forecasts on the other two at a later date, but here’s our first analysis on the weekend’s marquee opener.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 50 million

PROS:

  • The franchise has proven very successful with two critically and commercially successful chapters in 2010 and 2014, earning a combined $395 million domestically.
  • Opening two weeks after The LEGO Movie 2 should provide just enough breathing room for this to serve as a strong family-friendly winter tentpole, likely opening well along the lines of the studio’s own Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41.3 million in January 2016).
  • The promise of a trilogy-capper helmed by returning director Dean DeBlois should bring back most fans of the series, especially the considerable adult segment of that audience.
  • Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging.

CONS:

  • If LEGO Movie 2‘s word of mouth proves comparable with its own direct predecessor, that may cut slightly into Dragon 3‘s potential.
  • Similarly, Captain Marvel opens in Hidden World‘s third weekend and could leech some of the target younger audience.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 2,700 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 2,900 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 3,000 STX
1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 $180,000,000 Universal
1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Fox
1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $10,000,000 $30,000,000 Aviron
1/25/2019 Untitled STX Action/Thriller n/a n/a STX Entertainment
2/1/2019 Jacob’s Ladder n/a n/a LD Entertainment
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $60,000,000 $213,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy n/a n/a Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 Paramount
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $14,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $14,500,000 $41,000,000 Fox
2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family n/a n/a MGM
2/14/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $24,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 NEW $155,000,000 NEW Universal
2/22/2019 Rhythm Section n/a n/a Paramount
2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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