Saturday Update: One of the most jam-packed weekends in recent memory boasted a few surprises and otherwise expected results on Friday. Hidden Figures again claimed the top spot with $5.525 million as it expanded to 3,286 locations after last week’s strong debut. The four-day MLK weekend and strong word of mouth should continue to propel it toward victory over the three- and four-day frames with a respective $18.9 million and $22.3 million — projections based on the studio’s Friday estimate.
The Bye Bye Man opened to a healthy $5.43 million yesterday, though notably boosted by horror fans turning out for “Friday the 13th.” We’re expecting a weekend split of $11.5 million/$12.5 million.
Patriots Day expanded into wide release with $4.13 million yesterday, somewhat below our pre-release forecast but still within a solid range for success ahead with great word of mouth behind it. Look for a weekend split around $12.7 million/$15 million.
Meanwhile, La La Land continues to grow its momentum following its record seven Golden Globe wins last weekend. The awards front-runner added $4.1 million yesterday after expanding to 1,848 theaters, heading toward a weekend of $14 million/$17 million.
Rogue One topped off the top five with another $3.244 million yesterday as it looks to cross the $500 million domestic benchmark by the end of the holiday frame. Its weekend split should ring up close to $13.5 million/$16.9 million.
Sleepless rang up a modest $3.015 million yesterday, eyeing $8.2 million/$9.6 million for the weekend; Monster Trucks launched with $2.6 million and should take in around $10.5 million/$14.1 million this weekend (also ahead of our pre-release tracking, but still an unfortunately slow start for the troubled release); and Live By Night came in well below our already conservative expectations with $1.95 million in its wide expansion yesterday, now eyeing a weekend of $5.5 million/$6.4 million.
Last but not least, Martin Scorsese’s Silence posted $660,000 from 747 locations yesterday. It should net around $2.1 million/$2.6 million.
Our key three-day weekend projections are below. Three-day studio projections will be published tomorrow, with four-day projections on Monday and actuals on Tuesday.
| 1 | Hidden Figures | $18,900,000 | -17% | 3,286 | 815 | $5,752 | $53,283,100 | 4 | Fox |
| 2 | La La Land | $14,000,000 | 38% | 1,848 | 333 | $7,576 | $73,581,569 | 6 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 3 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | $13,500,000 | -39% | 3,162 | -995 | $4,269 | $498,591,734 | 5 | Disney |
| 4 | Sing (2016) | $13,000,000 | -37% | 3,693 | -262 | $3,520 | $232,215,520 | 4 | Universal |
| 5 | Patriots Day | $12,700,000 | 12018% | 3,120 | 3113 | $4,071 | $13,624,082 | 4 | CBS Films / Lionsgate |
| 6 | The Bye Bye Man | $11,500,000 | — | 2,220 | — | $5,180 | $11,500,000 | 1 | STX Entertainment |
| 7 | Monster Trucks | $10,600,000 | — | 3,119 | — | $3,399 | $10,600,000 | 1 | Paramount |
| 8 | Sleepless | $8,200,000 | — | 1,803 | — | $4,548 | $8,200,000 | 1 | Open Road |
| 9 | Underworld: Blood Wars | $5,700,000 | -58% | 3,070 | 0 | $1,857 | $23,816,118 | 2 | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 10 | Live By Night | $5,500,000 | 20329% | 2,822 | 2818 | $1,949 | $5,685,644 | 4 | Warner Bros. |
| 11 | Passengers | $5,300,000 | -40% | 2,447 | -953 | $2,166 | $89,679,731 | 4 | Sony / Columbia |
| 12 | Moana | $3,700,000 | -42% | 1,847 | -702 | $2,003 | $231,006,125 | 8 | Disney |
| 13 | Why Him? | $3,500,000 | -49% | 1,977 | -927 | $1,770 | $55,333,047 | 4 | Fox |
| 14 | Fences | $2,800,000 | -42% | 1,342 | -1026 | $2,086 | $45,932,362 | 5 | Paramount |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lion | $2,200,000 | 6% | 575 | -25 | $3,826 | $13,242,604 | 8 | Weinstein Company |
| 2 | Silence | $2,100,000 | 336% | 747 | 696 | $2,811 | $3,181,764 | 4 | Paramount |
| 3 | Assassin’s Creed | $1,450,000 | -65% | 968 | -1674 | $1,498 | $52,953,641 | 4 | Fox |
| 4 | Jackie | $670,000 | -36% | 353 | 0 | $1,898 | $10,423,089 | 7 | Fox Searchlight |
| 5 | Trolls | $350,000 | -21% | 262 | -70 | $1,336 | $151,752,691 | 11 | Fox / DreamWorks Animation |
| 6 | OK Jaanu | $260,000 | — | 121 | — | $2,149 | $260,000 | 1 | FIP |
===
Friday Update: Patriots Day began its nationwide expansion last night with an estimated $560,000. That comes in below the $860,000 of Deepwater Horizon, although the extended holiday frame this weekend could render that a somewhat apples-to-oranges comparison. Positive reviews and its healthy platform run point to a very successful weekend ahead.
Sleepless opened to $410,000 last night, just ahead of The Bye Bye Man which posted $400,000. By comparison for the latter film, The Forest grabbed $520,000 when it debuted one week before MLK weekend in January last year.
Meanwhile, Live By Night scored $325,000 in its expansion last night, coming short of Ben Affleck’s most recent Thursday night launch — The Accountant ($1.35 million).
No Thursday night opening shows were held for Monster Trucks or Silence (which is expanding to 747 locations). For the weekend, though, we continue to expect a close race at the top between Hidden Figures and Patriots Day, with the former of the two likely winning out over the four-day period. La La Land, Sing, and Rogue One will be in the thick of things as well.
We’ll update with weekend projections based on studio Friday estimates on Saturday morning.
Share this post