Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Don’t Breathe’ Inhales a $26.1M Debut; ‘Mechanic: Resurrection’ Starts Below Its Predecessor w/ $7.5M

Sony’s horror thriller Don’t Breathe was a breath of fresh air at the box office, taking first place with an estimated $26.11 million opening weekend. With an estimated budget of under $10 million, the R-rated movie about a robbery gone wrong has more than earned back its cost within mere days of release. Impressively, the film earned more than the movies coming in second or third place this weekend, despite playing in fewer theaters.

Compared to other R-rated horror or thriller films this summer, Don’t Breathe starts 20.3 percent above the $21.68 million start of Lights Out and 17.1 percent behind the $31.51 million start of The Purge: Election YearDon’t Breathe earned a B+ CinemaScore and an A- from viewers under 35, the prime target demographic for the film.

The movie started with an estimated $10.01 million on Friday (including $1.875 million from Thursday night previews), declined a negligible 1.3 percent on Saturday to $9.875 million, and dropped 36.9 percent on Sunday to $6.225 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.60 to 1.

Suicide Squad yielded its perch atop the box office after three consecutive weekends leading, sliding to second place with a 41.9 percent decline to $12.11 million. With $282.88 million banked through 24 days, it is running 12.4 percent ahead of the $251.45 million start of Guardians of the Galaxy and 9.1 percent behind the $311.33 million total of Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice through the same points.

Focus Features’ Kubo and the Two Strings, which opened last weekend, actually experienced a rarely-seen improvement in its box office rank, especially for a film starting in wide release. With a mild 37.3 percent decline to an estimated $7.90 million, Kubo lifts from fourth to third place in its second weekend.

Compared to the four other Laika stop-motion animated films, Kubo had the lowest opening weekend but had a middle-of-the-pack second-weekend decline — coming below the 38.7 percent decline for 2012’s ParaNorman and 47.6 percent drop for 2005’s Corpse Bride, but above the 30.7 percent for 2014’s The Boxtrolls and 12.3 percent for 2009’s Coraline. However, Kubo‘s $24.92 million start through 10 days is running behind all four of those films through the same points in wide release.

Sony’s Sausage Party took fourth place with a 50.5 percent drop to an estimated $7.66 million. Pre-release projections were initially in disagreement over whether the weekend declines for the R-rated animated film would be more typical of the lower drops for more traditionally family-focused animated fare, but that appears not to be the case, with 50+ percent drops both weekends so far.

Lionsgate’s Mechanic: Resurrection opened with a disappointing $7.50 million. The action sequel starring Jason Statham and Jessica Alba started 34.3 percent behind the $11.42 million opening of 2011’s The Mechanic — doubly disappointing because the original film opened in January, when opening weekends are often lower than in August

Resurrection started with $2.62 million on Friday (including $390 thousand in Thursday night previews), increased 6.1 percent on Saturday to $2.78 million, and dropped 24.4 percent on Sunday to $2.10 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.86 to 1.

Outside the top five were two notable new openers and an expanded release. Roadside Attractions’ Southside With You, a romance enacting Barack and Michelle Obama’s first date in 1989, opened with $3.06 million in a limited 813 theaters.  Weinstein Company’s boxing drama Hands of Stone starring Edgar Ramirez and Robert De Niro started with $1.73 million in 810 theaters. And Lionsgate and CBS Films’ Western Hell or High Water doubled its theater count and in turn improved by 38.3 percent to $3.72 million. Based on the film’s strong performance, the studio plans to continue expansion next weekend.

The top 10 films this weekend made an estimated $91.35 million total, which is 18.7 percent below the $112.41 million for last weekend and 44.6 percent above the $63.16 million for the same weekend last year, when Straight Outta Compton led the box office.

Overseas Update:

If there was ever proof that China is soon to overtake the U.S. as the most important box office market in the world, this weekend was it. The top two films at the international box office, with more than double any other film’s overseas weekend gross, came in 9th place and 21st place at the domestic box office.

Jason Bourne made an estimated $56.8 million overseas, up about quintuple over last weekend, in 62 markets — almost entirely due to its $50 million debut in China. Within mere days, it has already overtaken the total Chinese gross for previous installments The Bourne UltimatumThe Bourne Supremacy, and The Bourne Identity.

Ice Age: Collision Course, has done terribly at the domestic box office, with only $61.6 million to date and certain to end up as the lowest-grossing of the series’ five films domestically, with less than half the total of the next-lowest installment. But it made $50.1 million overseas this weekend in 37 markets, up an astounding 13 times over its overseas gross last weekend — led almost entirely by its $42.4 million start in China.

Other notable overseas grosses this weekend include The Secret Life of Pets, down 45.3 percent to $24.6 million overseas in 57 markets, and Suicide Squad, down 48.4 percent to $19.6 million overseas in 65 markets.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, August 26 – Sunday, August 28, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Don’t Breathe $26,110,000 3,051 $8,558 $26,110,000 1 Sony / TriStar
2 Suicide Squad $12,110,000 -42% 3,582 -342 $3,381 $282,882,627 4 Warner Bros.
3 Kubo and the Two Strings $7,909,000 -37% 3,279 19 $2,412 $24,920,378 2 Focus
4 Sausage Party $7,670,000 -50% 3,135 32 $2,447 $80,013,510 3 Sony / Columbia
5 Mechanic: Resurrection $7,500,000 2,258 $3,322 $7,500,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
6 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $7,282,000 -36% 3,244 -458 $2,245 $54,715,378 3 Disney
7 War Dogs $7,255,000 -51% 3,258 0 $2,227 $27,757,687 2 Warner Bros.
8 Bad Moms $5,760,000 -28% 2,565 -246 $2,246 $95,453,235 5 STX Entertainment
9 Jason Bourne $5,230,000 -35% 2,445 -442 $2,139 $149,357,235 5 Universal
10 Ben-Hur (2016) $4,530,000 -60% 3,084 0 $1,469 $19,552,877 2 Paramount
11 The Secret Life of Pets $3,760,000 -36% 2,091 -313 $1,798 $353,221,005 8 Universal
12 Florence Foster Jenkins $3,000,000 -32% 1,324 -204 $2,266 $19,853,295 3 Paramount
13 Star Trek Beyond $2,240,000 -43% 1,277 -689 $1,754 $150,870,049 6 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hell or High Water $3,725,000 38% 909 437 $4,098 $8,564,099 3 CBS Films / Lionsgate
2 Southside with You $3,060,064 813 $3,764 $3,060,064 1 Roadside / Miramax
3 Hands of Stone $1,734,000 810 $2,141 $1,734,000 1 The Weinstein Company
4 Lights Out $700,000 -56% 603 -339 $1,161 $65,498,451 6 Warner Bros. / New Line
5 Finding Dory $634,000 -30% 345 -105 $1,838 $479,602,645 11 Disney
6 Nerve $545,000 -54% 455 -404 $1,198 $36,823,294 5 Lionsgate
7 Ice Age: Collision Course $480,000 -47% 455 -327 $1,055 $61,686,729 6 Fox
8 Don’t Think Twice $457,450 20% 150 50 $3,050 $2,375,012 6 The Film Arcade
9 Cafe Society $360,000 -28% 216 -55 $1,667 $10,012,219 7 Lionsgate / Amazon
10 Equity $351,420 165% 255 212 $1,378 $936,020 5 Sony Pictures Classics
11 The BFG $291,000 -19% 235 28 $1,238 $54,296,619 9 Disney / DreamWorks
12 The Jungle Book (2016) $271,000 110% 352 200 $770 $363,545,049 20 Disney
13 Indignation $253,965 -51% 172 -145 $1,477 $2,811,905 5 Roadside / Summit
14 Captain Fantastic $174,265 -27% 122 -31 $1,428 $174,265 8 Bleecker Street
15 Anthropoid $144,887 -74% 124 -317 $1,168 $144,887 3 Bleecker Street
16 Hunt for the Wilderpeople $117,000 -29% 100 -25 $1,170 $4,387,301 10 The Orchard
17 Independence Day: Resurgence $64,000 -52% 112 -44 $571 $102,871,487 10 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Tunnel $180,465 36 $5,013 $180,465 1 Well Go USA
2 A Tale of Love and Darkness $121,000 226% 26 24 $4,654 $172,207 2 Focus World
3 Captain America: Civil War $79,000 -16% 93 -24 $849 $407,826,164 17 Disney
4 Hillary’s America – The Secret History of the Democratic Party $52,000 -57% 80 -60 $650 $12,470,637 7 D’Souza EntertainmentQuality Flix
5 The Hollars $46,068 4 $11,517 $46,068 1 Sony Pictures Classics
6 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $41,000 -35% 73 -12 $562 $81,984,402 13 Paramount
7 Mia Madre $35,000 6 $5,833 $35,000 1 Music Box Films
8 Howards End (2016 re-release) $24,822 2 $12,411 $24,822 1 Cohen Media Group
9 The People vs. Fritz Bauer $21,940 -35% 8 2 $2,743 $73,145 2 Cohen Media Group
10 Ixcanul $19,000 218% 6 5 $3,167 $45,419 2 Kino Lorber
11 A Complete Unknown $15,680 2 $7,840 $15,680 1 IFC Films / Amazon
12 Alice Through the Looking Glass $13,000 -37% 25 -19 $520 $77,038,690 14 Disney
13 Miss Sharon Jones! $12,232 331% 10 5 $1,223 $73,745 5 Starz Digital
14 The Music of Strangers $11,248 -1% 18 -2 $625 $1,121,211 12
15 Gleason $9,682 -73% 35 -21 $277 $575,713 5 Open Road / Amazon
16 Fatima $6,400 1 $6,400 $6,400 1 Kino Lorber
17 Life, Animated $3,781 -20% 60 50 $63 $224,319 9 The Orchard