Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Girl on the Train’ Gets All Aboard w/ $24.6M; ‘Birth of a Nation’ Stillborn At $7.1M; ‘Middle School’ Opens To $6.9M; ‘Finding Dory’ Crosses $1B Globally

The Girl on the Train rode to first place at the box office this weekend, as fellow new releases The Birth of a Nation and Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life came in with middling grosses and Finding Dory earned $1 billion worldwide.

Universal’s The Girl on the Train, a drama thriller starring Emily Blunt as an alcoholic staring out the window of a train who may have inadvertently become the last person to see a woman alive before she goes missing, topped the box office with an estimated $24.66 million. The movie was based on the hit Paula Hawkins novel of the same name.

Compared to other R-rated female-centered films based on bestselling books of this decade, Girl starts 34.2 percent behind the $37.51 million opening of Gone Girl and 93.1 percent ahead of the $12.76 million debut of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The audience for Train was 68 percent female (not surprising for a movie with the word “Girl” in the title), 55 percent over age 35, and gave the film a weak B- CinemaScore.

Girl on the Train started with an estimated $9.37 million on Friday (including $1.23 million from Thursday evening shows), increased 1.9 percent on Saturday to an estimated $9.55 million, and is projected to decline 39.8 percent on Sunday to $5.74 million. This places its opening-weekend-to-Friday ratio at an estimated 2.63 to 1.

Fox Searchlight’s The Birth of a Nation, a Civil War slavery drama starring Nate Parker and Aja Naomi King, started with an estimated $7.10 million in sixth place. The film received generally positive reviews, although even that was down from the unbelievable hype after early film festival screenings — months ago some predicted that it could be the first-place frontrunner for Best Picture, a prediction that now seems highly unlikely. The film starts 6.2 percent behind the $7.57 million opening of June’s Civil War drama Free State of Jones and 6.3 percent ahead of the $6.67 million wide opening of 12 Years a Slave.

Birth started with an estimated $2.63 million on Friday (including $350-$450 thousand from Thursday evening shows), increased 2.4 percent on Saturday to an estimated $2.70 million, and is projected to decline 34.6 percent on Saturday to $1.76 million. This places its opening-weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.69 to 1.

Lionsgate’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life, a family-friendly teen comedy starring newcomer Griffin Gluck and based on the James Patterson book, only managed seventh place in its debut. 2016 may prove to be the “worst year of the life” of the film’s producers, as the movie opened with an estimated $6.90 million. The film earned an A- CinemaScore from an audience 54 percent under age 18, as would be expected given the film’s adolescent theme.

Middle School earned an estimated $1.95 million on Friday, increased a substantial 47.6 percent on Saturday to an estimated $2.88 million, and is projected to drop 28.1 percent on Sunday to $2.07 million. This places its opening-weekend-to-Friday ratio at an estimated 3.53, a perhaps-encouraging sign for grosses in the weeks to come.

In second place this weekend was last weekend’s top film, Fox’s fantasy Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children, which dropped 48.0 percent to an estimated $15.0 million, and has earned $51.05 million total through two weekends. In this place was Lionsgate’s disaster drama Deepwater Horizon, which fell 41.9 percent to an estimated $11.75 million, and has earned $38.51 million total through two weekends.

The top 10 films this weekend earned an estimated $93.99 million cumulatively. That’s 8.0 percent behind the $102.19 million earned by the top 10 films last weekend, and 11.9 percent behind the $106.80 million on this same weekend last year, when The Martian led for a second straight frame with $37.00 million.

Overseas Update:

Fox’s Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children owned the overseas box office for a second straight frame with an estimated $42.6 million weekend, up 16.3 percent, in 75 markets. The film has earned $94.0 million overseas and $145.1 million globally, led by $14.8 million in South Korea, $8.9 million in the United Kingdom, $7.0 million in Mexico, and $6.0 million in Australia.

No other film was able to make anywhere near that ballpark overseas this weekend, but the real story was this weekend’s 18th-highest grossing film at the domestic box office, as Disney’s Finding Dory became the third movie of the year to cross the billion-dollar mark worldwide. With an estimated $8.9 million overseas this weekend, the film’s $516.7 million overseas total combined with its still-trickling-in $484.8 million domestic total to just barely top $1 billion to date. Notable grosses include $65.9 million in Japan, $55.0 million in the United Kingdom, $38.4 million in China, $36.2 million in Australia, and $34.5 million in Brazil.

It becomes the third release to reach the mark this year, in addition to two other Disney films: Captain America: Civil War and Zootopia. (They may yet reach $1 billion with their December release of Star Wars spinoff Rogue One as well.)

 Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, October 7 – Sunday, October 9, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Girl on the Train (2016) $24,660,000 3,144 $7,844 $24,660,000 1 Universal
2 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children $15,000,000 -48% 3,705 183 $4,049 $51,053,483 2 Fox
3 Deepwater Horizon $11,750,000 -42% 3,259 0 $3,605 $38,518,388 2 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Magnificent Seven (2016) $9,150,000 -41% 3,696 22 $2,476 $75,915,393 3 Sony / Columbia
5 Storks $8,450,000 -37% 3,608 -314 $2,342 $50,118,494 3 Warner Bros.
6 The Birth of a Nation (2016) $7,100,000 2,105 $3,373 $7,100,000 1 Fox Searchlight
7 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life $6,900,000 2,822 $2,445 $6,900,000 1 CBS Films / Lionsgate
8 Sully $5,270,000 -36% 3,058 -659 $1,723 $113,485,432 5 Warner Bros.
9 Masterminds (2016) $4,100,000 -37% 3,042 0 $1,348 $12,788,325 2 Relativity Studios
10 Queen of Katwe $1,618,000 -35% 1,259 17 $1,285 $5,384,636 3 Disney
11 Don’t Breathe $1,350,000 -43% 1,066 -587 $1,266 $86,921,355 7 Sony / TriStar
12 Snowden $756,628 -62% 1,821 0 $416 $20,219,706 4 Open Road
13 Sausage Party $455,000 140% 1,071 841 $425 $97,309,151 9 Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Suicide Squad $1,110,000 -42% 972 -666 $1,142 $322,533,924 10 Warner Bros.
2 Bridget Jones’s Baby $826,000 -65% 915 -1140 $903 $22,786,695 4 Universal
3 Blair Witch $500,000 -68% 668 -1160 $749 $20,179,309 4 Lionsgate
4 When the Bough Breaks $465,000 -61% 460 -441 $1,011 $29,330,880 5 Sony / Screen Gems
5 Finding Dory $346,000 137% 207 68 $1,671 $484,780,568 17 Disney
6 The Secret Life of Pets $324,000 -27% 339 -122 $956 $365,372,935 14 Universal
7 M.S. Dhoni: The Untold Story $290,000 -74% 233 -23 $1,245 $1,625,317 2 FIP
8 Hell or High Water $265,000 -47% 275 -245 $964 $26,229,442 9 CBS Films / Lionsgate
9 The Dressmaker $234,970 -36% 174 15 $1,350 $1,038,271 3 Broad Green Pictures
10 Kubo and the Two Strings $214,000 -54% 251 -275 $853 $47,108,048 8 Focus
11 The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years $204,122 -36% 120 -35 $1,701 $2,420,305 4 Abramorama
12 No Manches Frida $190,000 -50% 138 -118 $1,377 $11,197,144 6 Lionsgate / Pantelion
13 Bad Moms $180,000 -62% 265 -294 $679 $112,860,839 11 STX Entertainment
14 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $176,000 -44% 224 -216 $786 $75,005,131 9 Disney
15 Star Trek Beyond $130,000 -39% 191 -89 $681 $158,656,005 12 Paramount
16 Nine Lives (2016) $75,000 89% 114 54 $658 $19,539,691 10 EuropaCorp Films
17 The Wild Life (2016) $58,000 13% 164 14 $354 $7,931,796 5 Lionsgate / Summit
18 The Light Between Oceans $49,000 -60% 101 -75 $485 $12,371,798 6 Disney / DreamWorks

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Denial $229,935 145% 31 26 $7,417 $358,174 2 Bleeker Street
2 I Belonged to You $160,000 -49% 49 -1 $3,265 $592,799 2 China Lion Entertainment
3 A Man Called Ove $95,000 74% 27 18 $3,519 $178,721 2 Music Box Films
4 American Honey $88,641 24% 25 21 $3,546 $185,191 2 A24
5 Don’t Think Twice $58,171 -41% 50 -24 $1,163 $4,231,922 12 The Film Arcade
6 Florence Foster Jenkins $45,000 -54% 72 -56 $625 $27,251,789 9 Paramount
7 Mechanic: Resurrection $44,000 -53% 68 -70 $647 $21,013,350 7 Lionsgate / Summit
8 Hunt for the Wilderpeople $30,984 -35% 39 -14 $794 $5,139,457 16 The Orchard
9 The BFG $25,000 -48% 40 -46 $625 $55,476,779 15 Disney / DreamWorks
10 The Greasy Strangler $25,000 11 $2,273 $25,000 1 FilmRise
11 Girl Asleep $24,000 24 $1,000 $33,540 3 Oscilloscope Laboratories
12 Captain Fantastic $21,727 -42% 26 -17 $836 $5,802,625 14 Bleecker Street
13 The Hollars $18,568 -80% 40 -157 $464 $964,559 7 Sony Pictures Classics
14 Harry & Snowman $18,000 -68% 12 -6 $1,500 $97,164 2 FilmRise
15 Indignation $14,125 -36% 12 -11 $1,177 $3,366,236 11 Roadside / Summit
16 Hillsong – Let Hope Rise $11,000 -76% 28 -59 $393 $2,340,704 4
17 Command and Control $9,050 6 $1,508 $46,603 4 American Experience / PBS Films
18 White Girl $8,000 -37% 2 -3 $4,000 $190,754 6 FilmRise
19 Newtown $6,796 2 $3,398 $6,796 1 Abramorama
20 Theo Who Lived $5,539 1 $5,539 $5,539 1 Zeitgeist Films
21 Blue Jay $5,235 1 $5,235 $5,235 1 The Orchard
22 Demon $5,218 -67% 12 -12 $435 $93,245 5 The OrchardThe Orchard
23 Do Not Resist $4,065 1 $4,065 $15,259 2
24 The Best Democracy Money Can Buy: A Tale of Billionaires & Ballot Bandits $1,000 -87% 2 -2 $500 $22,560 3 Cinema Libre Studio
googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1553617519041-1'); });

News Stories