Weekend Projections: ‘Despicable Me 3’ Eyes $80M; ‘Baby Driver’ ($19M/$28M) Fulfills Sleeper Potential; ‘The House’ ($8.9M) Underwhelms

Saturday Update: Despicable Me 3 earned $29.2 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night preview grosses. That’s down nearly 67 percent from Minions‘ $46.04 million opening day two summers ago, but still marks a healthy debut for the fourth film in the franchise as it looks to attract family crowds over the long holiday weekend. We’re currently projecting an $80 million three-day weekend, although multiples are more fluid than usual due to the fact that the Fourth of July hasn’t landed on a Tuesday since 2006. Sunday matinees in particular will be stronger than usual compared to most weekends.

Baby Driver posted an impressive 80.6 percent increase from Thursday to $6.0 million yesterday, giving it $15.03 million in just three days of release. That’s significantly stronger than the 55 percent increase This Is the End posted from Thursday to Friday during its opening weekend in June 2013. Edgar Wright’s original film is living up to our forecast as a sleeper hit and is on course for an excellent weekend that should tally around $19 million Friday through Sunday, making for a five-day debut north of $28 million as strong word of mouth continues to spread.

Transformers: The Last Knight added $4.86 million yesterday for a new ten-day domestic haul of $89.96 million. This weekend looks to tally around $16 million.

Wonder Woman continues to stun with another $4.35 million yesterday, pushing it up to $334.9 million domestically. Its three-day frame looks to net around $15.2 million.

Cars 3 earned $2.974 million yesterday, bringing it to $114.2 million stateside. This weekend will likely bring in $11 million overall.

Unfortunately, The House earned an underwhelming $3.35 million on opening day and looks to be on track for $8.9 million this weekend.

Our key weekend projections are below. Studio estimates will be published tomorrow and through Tuesday before actuals for the entire holiday weekend are reported on Wednesday.

WIDE (1000+)

1 Despicable Me 3 $80,000,000 4,529 $17,664 $80,000,000 1 Universal
2 Baby Driver $19,000,000 3,226 $5,890 $28,029,105 1 Sony / TriStar
3 Transformers: The Last Knight $16,000,000 -64% 4,132 63 $3,872 $101,103,351 2 Paramount
4 Wonder Woman $15,200,000 -39% 3,404 -529 $4,465 $345,729,475 5 Warner Bros.
5 Cars 3 $11,000,000 -54% 3,576 -680 $3,076 $122,190,099 3 Disney
6 The House (2017) $8,900,000 3,134 $2,840 $8,900,000 1 Warner Bros. / New Line
7 47 Meters Down $4,400,000 -38% 2,250 -221 $1,956 $32,309,454 3 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
8 The Mummy $2,700,000 -55% 1,760 -1220 $1,534 $74,416,840 4 Universal
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $2,500,000 -54% 1,674 -779 $1,493 $165,555,587 6 Disney
10 All Eyez On Me $1,800,000 -69% 1,258 -1213 $1,431 $42,652,463 3 Lionsgate / Summit
11 Captain Underpants $1,175,000 -73% 1,452 -876 $809 $69,320,793 5 Fox / DreamWorks Animation

LIMITED (100 — 999)

1 The Beguiled $3,000,000 1208% 674 670 $4,451 $3,319,448 2 Focus Features
2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $1,500,000 -50% 966 -502 $1,553 $383,343,975 9 Disney
3 The Boss Baby $240,000 -27% 215 -26 $1,116 $173,550,805 14 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
4 Alien: Covenant $175,000 -49% 213 -81 $822 $73,656,308 7 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

1 The Big Sick $1,500,000 256% 71 66 $21,127 $2,056,490 2 Lionsgate
2 My Cousin Rachel $52,000 -74% 61 -102 $852 $2,581,821 4 Fox Searchlight


Friday Update: Despicable Me 3 scored an estimated $4.1 million from Thursday night’s opening shows, a solid start for the franchise flick entering the weekend. By comparison, that tally was down 34 percent from Minions‘ $6.2 million Thursday start in July 2015 — however, that latter film opened after the Fourth of July holiday. With many families enjoying a five-day weekend between Friday and Tuesday, immediate rush-out demand for DM3 is likely to be more spread out across the weekend.

Also debuting last night, The House took in a modest $800,000 starting gross. That’s come in just ahead of Rough Night‘s $700,000 two weeks ago, while marking less than half of Central Intelligence‘s $1.84 million Thursday night haul in June of last year.

Meanwhile, Baby Driver added an estimated $3.31 million in its second full day of release on Thursday, marking a 42 percent decline from opening day Wednesday. Given the share of Tuesday night grosses driven by Wright fans, the Thursday drop is generally expected (nearly identical to the 42.5% Thursday drop of This Is the End four years ago) and gives the film a two-day tally of just over $9 million. If the thriller’s strong word of mouth builds into mainstream appeal over the holiday frame, it should be a very good weekend ahead for the pic.

We’ll update this post with official Friday estimates from the studios and key weekend projections tomorrow morning.


Thursday Update: Sony reports today that Baby Driver scored a solid $5.7 million opening day on Wednesday, including Tuesday night’s $2.1 million previews. With 37 percent of the first day’s gross coming from opening screenings, that does clearly mark some front-loading by Edgar Wright fans. Still, as a midweek opener, there remains a distinct possibility that the film will continue to build momentum over the next few days as more casual audiences are exposed to strong word of mouth — particularly given that we’re about to begin a five-day holiday weekend. Projections remain quite fluid at this point as our own forecast yesterday aimed for the optimistic end based on buzz, pre-sales reports, and social media engagement comparable to past hits like Now You See Me and Kingsman: The Secret Service, while Sony’s own projections (as of this morning) remain for a mid-teens opening over the five-day. The likely scenario will land somewhere in the middle of those two ranges unless general audience attendance explodes over the Friday-Sunday period, but we won’t be offering official projections again until Saturday.


Wednesday Report: Sony announced this morning that writer/director Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver zoomed to $2.1 million from its first shows last night in 2,606 theaters. A number of Wright’s fans turned out last night, so it will remain to be seen how front-loaded the film is. Still, this marks an excellent start for the widely praised original film as it aims to build momentum over the days and weeks ahead. Boxoffice.com has frequently listed it atop this summer’s best contenders for a breakout sleeper hit, and it seems to be living up to those expectations so far.

Regarding comparisons, there are few direct ones. One oddball candidate could be This Is the End, which was similarly well-reviewed, driven by a big fan turnout during early shows, and opened on a Wednesday in June 2013. That ensemble comedy attracted a similar $2.2 million Tuesday night start. Baby Driver also came in ahead of the $1.5 million and $1.75 million Thursday night bows of Now You See Me and its sequel, respectively. Kingsman: The Secret Service could be another apt comparison, although its February debut — and $1.4 million Thursday bow — make for an apples-to-oranges comparison with a summer release.

We’ll update this post with official estimates as they come out. Meanwhile, our final weekend forecast for Baby DriverDespicable Me 3, and The House will be published later today.