Weekend Estimates: ‘Finding Dory’ Three-Peats ($41.9M 3-Day / $50.4M 4-Day); ‘Legend of Tarzan’ Swings To $38.1M, ‘Purge: Election Year’ Screams To $30.8M/$34.0M; ‘BFG’ Not Tall At $19.5M/$23.5M

Disney’s Finding Dory “found” itself atop the box office for the third straight weekend, declining 42.6 percent to an estimated $41.90 million three-day weekend. Despite a third place finish on Friday, the Pixar animated film starring the voice of Ellen DeGeneres clawed its way back to the top of the weekend over the course of Saturday and Sunday. Disney is estimating a $50.48 million take for Dory‘s four-day Independence Day weekend, since the holiday falls on a Monday this year, for a 30.8 percent full-weekend-to-full-weekend decline.

With an estimated $372.25 million through 17 days on Sunday, the Pixar film has now surpassed the $356.46 million total of last year’s Inside Out. It is also running 28.7 percent ahead of the $289.10 million 17-day start of 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 94.3 percent ahead of the $191.48 million 17-day start of predecessor Finding Nemo, which it’s still out-performing even after adjusting Nemo‘s 2003 grosses for ticket price inflation.

Warner Bros.’ The Legend of Tarzan swung to a close second place with an estimated $38.13 million three-day opening weekend. Despite generally poor reviews, the period adventure film starring Alexander Skarsgard, Margot Robbie, Samuel L. Jackson, and Christoph Waltz exceeded many pre-release expectations. It started with $14.08 million on Friday, declined 10.1 percent to $12.65 million on Saturday, and dropped another 9.9 percent to $11.4 million on Sunday — both fairly mild drops for a summer blockbuster. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.07 to 1. The film had an A- CinemaScore, an audience which was 55 percent over age 35, and 51 percent female attendees — no doubt helped by a frequently-shirtless Skarsgard in the title role. Warner Bros. has not yet projected Monday grosses for the four-day weekend.

Universal’s The Purge: Election Year scared its way to an estimated $30.87 million three-day opening weekend, exceeding its $10 million budget during its opening day alone. The horror sequel starring Elizabeth Mitchell and Frank Grillo opened 3.5 percent above the $29.81 million opening of 2014’s installment The Purge: Anarchy and 9.3 percent behind the $34.05 million opening of 2013’s original The Purge. Universal is projecting a $34.01 million four-day weekend.

The film started with $14.53 million on Friday, declined a sharp 35.7 percent to $9.34 million on Saturday, and dropped another 25.0 percent $7.00 million on Sunday. This places its estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated at a frontloaded 2.12 to 1, between The Purge‘s 2.03 and Anarchy‘s 2.29. The film had a B+ CinemaScore which is the highest of the series, a 53 percent female audience, and 65 percent of attendees under age 25 as is typical for the horror genre.  [Read the Boxoffice Pro interview with The Purge: Election Year director and screenwriter James DeMonaco here.]

Disney’s The BFG may have been “friendly” but wasn’t “big” or “giant” with a lackluster estimated $19.58 million opening weekend a fourth-place start. The family-friendly fantasy directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Mark Rylance plus newcomer Ruby Barnhill started with $7.02 million on Friday, declined 12.0 percent to $6.18 million on Saturday, and actually increased by 3.0 percent to $6.37 million on Sunday. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.78 to 1.

With a 54 percent female and 60 percent family audience, the film notched an A- CinemaScore. Its opening weekend was 65.1 percent behind the $56.71 million opening of 2005’s fellow Roald Dahl adaptation Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, more than double the $9.72 million start of Spielberg’s last family film, 2011’s The Adventure of Tintin, and (though not the same genre) 27.4 percent ahead of the $15.37 million start of Spielberg and Rylance’s previous collaboration Bridge of Spies last October. Disney is projecting a $23.59 million four-day holiday weekend gross.

Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence was not helped by the Independence Day holiday, as it fell an apocalyptic 59.8 percent to an estimated $16.5 million three-day weekend and fifth place. It’s $72.65 million 10-day start is 46.3 percent behind the $135.37 million 10-day take of the original Independence Day — and that was released back in 1996, when the average ticket price was less than half its average today. Fox is projecting a $20.12 million four-day holiday weekend for Resurgence.

Warner Bros.’ Central Intelligence fell 32.4 percent to $12.33 million and sixth place (no four-day projections yet), for a $91.67 million total through 17 days. Sony’s shark attack thriller The Shallows declined 46.4 percent to $9.0 million and seventh place ($10.7 million four-day weekend projection), for 35.25 million through 10 days. STX Entertainment’s Civil War drama Free State of Jones took a 45.4 percent hit to $4.13 million and eighth place ($5.07 million four-day weekend projection), for a $15.19 million total through 10 days.

Warner Bros.’ horror The Conjuring 2 dropped 50.0 percent to $3.85 million and ninth place (no four-day projections yet), for a $95.28 million total through 24 days. That’s 19.8 percent ahead of the $79.50 million 24-day start of spinoff Annabelle and 21.0 percent behind the $120.67 million 24-day take of 2013’s original The Conjuring. Lionsgate’s Now You See Me 2 disappeared by 47.2 percent to $2.95 million (no four-day projections yet). It’s now earned $58.68 million through 24 days, which is 37.8 percent behind the $94.45 million 24-day start of 2013’s original Now You See Me.

The top 12 films at the box office made an estimated $181.70 million total, up less than one percent from last weekend and up 40.9 percent from the same weekend last year. We will update with four-day weekend actuals on Tuesday.

Overseas Update:

Independence Day: Resurgence took in an estimated $40.2 million overseas this week, down 60.5 percent, in 64 markets. It’s now earned $177.0 million overseas and $249.71 million globally. Key grosses to date include $66.4 million in China, $13.4 million in the United Kingdom, $11.5 million in Mexico, and $10.3 million in South Korea.

Finding Dory swam to an estimated $34.4 million overseas, down 7.0 percent, in 40 territories. It’s now earned $166.0 million overseas and $538.2 million globally. Key grosses to date include $36.2 million in China, $22.6 million in Australia, $10.4 million in Argentina, and $10.3 million in France.

Now You See Me 2 conjured up an estimated $20.8 million overseas, down 59.1 percent, in 60 markets. It’s now earned $155.6 million overseas and $214.3 million globally. Notable grosses to date include $81.9 million in China and $15.1 million in Russia.

Ice Age: Collision Course opened to $20.0 million overseas in only seven markets, ahead of its domestic release on July 2. That included $8.6 million in Mexico, $5.9 million in Germany, and $2.9 million in Australia.

The Conjuring 2 added $13.1 million overseas, down 31.9 percent, in 60 markets. It’s now earned $178.8 million overseas and $274.0 million global total. Me Before You took in $12.2 million overseas, down 32.5 percent, in 44 markets. It’s now earned $83.0 million overseas and $136.6 million globally. Alice Through the Looking Glass added $5.4 million overseas, up 71.4 percent, in 16 territories. It’s now earned $183.7 million overseas and $259.3 million globally. The BFG matched its disappointing domestic performance with an also-disappointing $3.9 million overseas start.

Three-Day Weekend Estimates for Friday, July 1 – Sunday, July 3, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Finding Dory $41,900,542 -43% 4,305 0 $9,733 $372,250,144 3 Disney
2 The Legend of Tarzan $38,135,000 3,561 $10,709 $38,135,000 1 Warner Bros.
3 The Purge: Election Year $30,870,000 2,796 $11,041 $30,870,000 1 Universal
4 The BFG $19,584,969 3,357 $5,834 $19,584,969 1 Disney / DreamWorks
5 Independence Day: Resurgence $16,500,000 -60% 4,091 23 $4,033 $72,657,073 2 Fox
6 Central Intelligence $12,330,000 -32% 3,166 -342 $3,895 $91,767,074 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
7 The Shallows $9,005,000 -46% 2,962 0 $3,040 $35,256,647 2 Sony / Columbia
8 Free State of Jones $4,134,000 -45% 2,781 -34 $1,487 $15,199,711 2 STX Entertainment
9 The Conjuring 2 $3,850,000 -50% 2,008 -1025 $1,917 $95,283,538 4 Warner Bros. / New Line
10 Now You See Me 2 $2,950,000 -47% 1,788 -957 $1,650 $58,689,445 4 Lionsgate / Summit

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Swiss Army Man $1,447,536 1273% 636 633 $2,276 $1,601,824 2 A24
2 Our Kind of Traitor $1,001,354 373 $2,685 $1,001,354 1 Roadside Attractions
3 X-Men: Apocalypse $940,000 -62% 630 -1049 $1,492 $153,537,455 6 Fox
4 Me Before You $810,000 -58% 523 -1015 $1,549 $53,696,795 5 Warner Bros. / New Line
5 Captain America: Civil War $771,835 -44% 367 -386 $2,103 $405,420,223 9 Disney
6 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $765,000 -69% 719 -1228 $1,064 $79,512,502 5 Paramount
7 The Jungle Book (2016) $689,990 -45% 294 -184 $2,347 $359,524,588 12 Disney
8 Warcraft $491,000 -78% 411 -1541 $1,195 $45,779,925 4 Universal
9 Love & Friendship $410,830 -12% 185 -96 $2,221 $12,556,154 8 Roadside / Amazon
10 Alice Through the Looking Glass $382,843 -79% 192 -303 $1,994 $75,663,172 6 Disney
11 The Lobster $344,280 -15% 151 -59 $2,280 $7,966,258 15 A24
12 The Angry Birds Movie $330,000 -27% 278 -165 $1,187 $105,697,614 7 Sony / Columbia
13 Maggie’s Plan $241,549 -12% 158 -45 $1,529 $2,631,855 7 Sony Pictures Classics
14 Zootopia $184,809 -32% 191 -42 $968 $340,736,628 18 Disney
15 The Neon Demon $134,558 -77% 185 -598 $727 $1,096,251 2 Broad Green / Amazon

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hunt for the Wilderpeople $142,474 84% 23 18 $6,195 $255,127 2 The Orchard
2 Genius $106,825 -50% 98 -54 $1,090 $1,029,873 4 Roadside Attractions
3 The Music of Strangers $104,740 9% 61 18 $1,717 $342,791 4
4 Dark Horse (2016) $86,560 -2% 67 -7 $1,292 $631,211 9 Sony Pictures Classics
5 The Innocents $31,500 3 $10,500 $31,500 1 Music Box Films
6 Eat That Question $31,490 89% 10 8 $3,149 $60,362 2 Sony Pictures Classics
7 Life, Animated $26,547 3 $8,849 $26,547 1 The Orchard
8 The Witness (2016) $14,000 -8% 7 -8 $2,000 $101,872 5 FilmRise
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