Saturday Update #2: Sources tell Boxoffice that Deadpool 2‘s Saturday take could end up slightly lower than initial studio expectations suggested this morning, although anything could still happen with much of the evening left to play out on the west coast. Very rough projections point to a Saturday take as high as $43-44 million. If that holds, the weekend take is likely to end up closer to $125-130 million than the $133.5 million initially estimated by the studio this morning. Still, that would line up the lower end of our expectations entering the weekend, and certainly represents a strong debut for the R-rated sequel.
Official studio estimates will follow on Sunday morning.
Saturday Update: Fox’s Deadpool 2 scored the biggest R-rated opening day of all-time with an estimated $53.3 million on Friday, including Thursday night’s $18.6 million launch, passing It‘s previous record of $50.4 million. The studio’s official weekend projection this morning is $133.5 million, in line with the mid-range of our pre-release forecasts.
The Merc’s sequel also marks the biggest opening day for a film not distributed by Disney since 2016’s Suicide Squad ($64.9 million), while coming in ahead of the first Deadpool‘s $47.3 million first day.
As expected, Thursday night proved to represent some minor frontloading by fans of the highly anticipated sequel as the film generated a greater share of business during premiere shows versus Friday overall when compared to films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Suicide Squad, and the original Deadpool itself. Positive word of mouth should continue to be an advantage, though, especially with a major holiday coming in its second weekend next week.
Avengers: Infinity War spent its first day out of first place since its record debut, kicking off its fourth weekend with $7.247 million. That generally meets expectations as direct competition from Deadpool 2 hit some of Infinity‘s target male adult audience. With $573.6 million in the bank domestically, the MCU blockbuster is pacing for a weekend around $28 million+ as it looks to cross the $600 million threshold at some point next week.
In China, unofficial reports peg Infinity War‘s updated cume at close to $260 million through Friday. Disney will update global and international breakdowns on Sunday morning.
Book Club opened to a very healthy $4.73 million on Friday, comparing favorably with the openings of Going In Style ($4.3 million) and Sisters ($4.96 million). The comedy looks to be on target for an opening weekend of $13.5 million+.
Meanwhile, Show Dogs earned $1.4 million on opening day and could reach $6 million or more for the weekend if it performs like similar films targeted toward parents with young kids.
On the limited and platform front: RBG added $330,000 on Friday, Pope Francis – A Man of His Word opened to $175,000 from 346 locations, and the 70mm restoration of 2001: A Space Odyssey earned a strong $57,000 from just four locations. We’re not currently offering up weekend projections for the latter title due to its very limited availability.
Early weekend estimates are below with updated estimates from the studios to follow on Sunday.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAY. 18 – SUN, MAY. 20
|2||Avengers: Infinity War||$28,300,000||-54%||4,002||-472||$7,071||$594,660,959||4||Disney|
|3||Book Club||$13,700,000||—||2,781||—||$4,926||$13,700,000||1||Paramount Pictures|
|4||Life Of The Party||$7,400,000||-59%||3,656||0||$2,024||$30,711,507||2||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|5||Breaking In||$6,500,000||-63%||2,537||0||$2,562||$28,779,710||2||Universal Pictures|
|6||Show Dogs||$6,200,000||—||3,212||—||$1,930||$6,200,000||1||Global Road Entertainment|
|7||Overboard||$4,700,000||-52%||1,820||-186||$2,582||$36,948,570||3||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|8||A Quiet Place||$4,200,000||-35%||2,327||-817||$1,805||$4,200,000||7||Paramount|
|10||I Feel Pretty||$1,300,000||-66%||1,505||-1353||$864||$46,638,457||5||STX Entertainment|
|2||Super Troopers 2||$1,100,000||12%||478||-901||$2,301||$28,912,356||5||20th Century Fox|
|4||Pope Francis – A Man of His Word||$550,000||—||346||—||$1,590||$550,000||1||Focus Features|
|7||Isle of Dogs||$300,000||-72%||288||-758||$1,042||$30,698,277||9||Fox Searchlight|
|8||Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare||$210,000||-77%||380||-889||$553||$40,247,010||6||Universal|
|9||A Wrinkle in Time||$135,000||-88%||230||-1754||$587||$97,340,442||11||Walt Disney Pictures|
|10||102 Not Out||$135,000||-54%||102||0||$1,324||$1,215,727||3||Sony Pictures Releasing International|
|11||Chappaquiddick||$87,000||-65%||150||-167||$580||$17,171,912||7||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
|12||Tyler Perry’s Acrimony||$60,000||-71%||116||-141||$517||$43,378,349||8||Lionsgate|
|1||Traffik||$37,000||-87%||81||-300||$457||$9,067,497||5||Lionsgate / Summit / Codeblack Films|
|2||Getting Grace||$2,000||-74%||3||-1||$667||$2,000||9||Hannover House|
Friday Update: Fox reports that Deadpool 2 landed with a big $18.6 million debut on Thursday night, the third highest launch of 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther, and the highest Thursday night opening of all-time for an R-rated film — besting It‘s $13.5 million last September.
Last night’s debut also registers as the largest for a non-Disney film since August 2016’s Suicide Squad ($20.5 million), while coming in well ahead of the first Deadpool‘s $12.7 million (as expected for a highly anticipated sequel). Among other superhero sequels, Deadpool 2 came in slightly above Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s $17 million last May and Thor: Ragnarok‘s $14.5 million.
Worth noting in these comparisons is that, like its X-Men “counterparts”, the Deadpool sequel is likely to be more frontloaded than family-driven matinee fare like the Disney/Marvel titles, although positive early word of mouth for Deadpool 2 and a holiday weekend landing in its second frame could skew models in a number of directions at this stage. As such, we’re holding off on initial weekend projections until a full Friday estimate is available from the studio. In the mean time, check out further analysis of the weekend ahead in our earlier report.
Paramount’s Book Club is off to a very encouraging start itself with an estimated $625,000 start last night. That puts it right in between the $600,000 launch of Going In Style back in April of last year and The Intern‘s $650,000 opening in late 2015, solidifying late expectations that the comedy could be surprise performer this weekend.
The weekend’s third release, Show Dogs, did not hold Thursday night screenings.
Follow us here and on Twitter for continued updates throughout the weekend.