Weekend Estimates: ‘Venom’ Stands Ground ($32M+); ‘A Star Is Born’ Holds Strong ($29M+); ‘First Man’ ($16.5M+) Leads ‘Goosebumps 2’ ($16M) & ‘Bad Times’ ($7.4M)

Saturday Update: Sony’s Venom held its ground on Friday, retaking first place after a brief concession on Thursday. The hit antihero comic pic added $9.785 million yesterday, bringing its eight-day domestic haul to $116.9 million. Projections for the weekend have swayed back in its favor with what is expected to be a sophomore frame around $32 million or slightly higher, withstanding its loss of IMAX screens in generally healthy fashion.

Its primary competition, A Star Is Born posted another excellent hold — easing just 46 percent from opening day last week to $8.5 million on Friday. The film continues its impressive run with an updated tally of $74.66 million through eight days. Current weekend projections now stand at $29.5 million as the hit remake remains in contention with Venom for the top spot but will likely take a few more days before it returns there.

First Man opened to $5.86 million on Friday, slightly below forecasts but generally in line with expectations. The strongly reviewed award season candidate was on par with the first days of Bridge of Spies ($5.4 million) and Argo ($5.9 million). Universal expects around $16.8 million for the weekend, while we’re a bit more optimistic about weekend holds.

Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween earned a healthy $4.85 million opening day, putting it on course for a debut in the mid-to-high teen millions (Sony expects $15.75 million). By comparison, the first Goosebumps pic earned $7.35 million on its first day.

Meanwhile, Bad Times at the El Royale earned $2.825 million to start its run yesterday, pacing for a weekend north of $7 million (Fox projects $7.8 million as of this morning). Opening day was comparable to mother!‘s $3.1 million start last fall.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, OCT. 12 – SUN, OCT. 14

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Venom $32,000,000 -60% 4,250 0 $7,529 $139,102,151 2 Sony / Columbia
2 A Star is Born $29,500,000 -31% 3,708 22 $7,956 $95,660,360 2 Warner Bros.
3 First Man $17,000,000 3,640 $4,670 $17,000,000 1 Universal
4 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween $16,000,000 3,521 $4,544 $16,000,000 1 Sony
5 Smallfoot $9,200,000 -36% 3,606 -525 $2,551 $57,508,221 3 Warner Bros.
6 Night School $7,700,000 -38% 2,780 -239 $2,770 $59,508,950 3 Universal
7 Bad Times At The El Royale $7,400,000 2,808 $2,635 $7,400,000 1 20th Century Fox
8 The House With A Clock In Its Walls $3,900,000 -47% 2,791 -672 $1,397 $62,175,500 4 Universal Pictures
9 A Simple Favor $1,300,000 -62% 1,452 -956 $895 $51,957,508 5 Lionsgate
10 The Nun $1,300,000 -52% 1,174 -1090 $1,107 $115,855,046 6 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Hate U Give $1,550,000 203% 248 212 $6,250 $2,262,314 2 20th Century Fox
2 Crazy Rich Asians $1,100,000 -49% 738 -728 $1,491 $171,389,368 9 Warner Bros.
3 The Old Man & The Gun $1,000,000 148% 228 179 $4,386 $1,784,924 3 Fox Searchlight
4 Incredibles 2 $280,000 0% 194 -50 $1,443 $607,542,593 18 Disney
5 The Sisters Brothers $260,000 28% 129 75 $2,016 $1,072,484 4 Annapurna Pictures
6 The Predator $195,000 -79% 376 -1267 $519 $50,684,921 5 Fox
7 Disney’s Christopher Robin $180,000 -59% 465 -1173 $387 $98,631,444 11 Disney
8 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $165,000 -49% 221 -140 $747 $220,095,330 12 Paramount
9 Ant-Man and the Wasp $90,000 -33% 132 -46 $682 $216,519,940 15 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jane and Emma $150,000 21 $7,143 $150,000 1 Excel Entertainment / Purdie Distribution
2 Bigger $30,000 61 $492 $30,000 1 Freestyle Releasing
3 God Bless the Broken Road $8,700 -61% 53 0 $164 $2,837,347 6 Freestyle Releasing
4 A.X.L. $5,161 -77% 25 -30 $206 $5,161 8 Global Road Entertainment

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Friday Report: Universal’s First Man earned a solid $1.1 million from last night’s first shows beginning at 7pm in 2,850 locations. That comes in 28 percent ahead of Deepwater Horizon ($860K), 18 percent behind Sully ($1.35 million), and 120 percent ahead of Bridge of Spies ($500K). As a film likely to generate healthy walk-up business from an older audience, this start bodes well for an opening weekend on target with expectations in the high teen millions to low $20 million range.

Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween brought in $750K for Sony last night, 11 percent behind The House With A Clock In Its Walls ($840K) and 25 percent ahead of the first Goosebumps ($600K). As a sequel with shows beginning at 5pm, it could be more front-loaded than either of those comps, but this is a healthy start nonetheless.

Fox reports that Bad Times at the El Royale took in $575K last night. That figure comes in identical to White Boy Rick ($575K), 18 percent behind mother! ($700K), and 33 percent behind Crimson Peak ($860K).

Among holdovers, A Star Is Born added $4.515 million for another excellent drop of just 2 percent from Wednesday. With $66.16 million in the domestic bank thus far, the word-of-mouth phenom is building a strong case for a run toward the first place crown this weekend against Venom.

Follow us for continued updates.