August rolls on this weekend as three new wide releases will try to liven up the market a bit.
Note: The original publication of this story included a typo for The Glass Castle‘s forecast. It has been corrected in the table below.
Our analysis and forecast:
- Annabelle: Creation is benefiting from several key factors, with goodwill from The Conjuring universe films being chief among them. 2014’s first Annabelle spin-off was a big financial success, earning $84.3 million domestically. The lack of breakout films since mid-July — in addition to the lack of horror films this summer — also leaves the market primed for something to come in ahead of expectations. Initial reviews are very positive (82 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), social media buzz is healthy overall, and sources tell Boxoffice that pre-sales are rivaling those of The Conjuring 2.
- The Nut Job 2 enters a market lacking any high-level, family-targeted performers. The first film was a surprise success with a $64 million run in January 2014. This could be positioned decently as parents with young kids look for something they haven’t already seen this summer.
- The Glass Castle has enjoyed a wave of positive social media activity recently. As a counter-programmer, its strongest advantages are recent Oscar-winner Brie Larson, Woody Harrelson, and an existing fan base from Jeannette Walls’ original novel.
- Annabelle: Creation‘s Twitter footprint isn’t quite as strong as the first film’s, an unusual sign for a sequel. The summer’s trend of franchise fatigue could strike here, but the positive reviews and marketing should counter most of that downside.
- The Nut Job 2 is likewise posting very modest social buzz, coming in well behind the Twitter and Facebook levels of Planes: Fire and Rescue. With many schools starting back around the country, and a few family-friendly holdovers in the market already, this may not find the same level of success as the first film.
- The Glass Castle is only opening in an estimated 1,400 locations, somewhat limiting its earning potential. Marketing has also been very muted, while mixed reviews (60 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) will likely cap its ability to expand far beyond fans of the book.
The Weekend Forecast:
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, August 13||% Change|
|Annabelle: Creation||Warner Bros. / New Line||$30,000,000||$30,000,000||NEW|
|The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature||Open Road Films||$10,000,000||$10,000,000||NEW|
|The Dark Tower||Sony / Columbia||$7,660,000||$34,650,000||-60%|
|The Emoji Movie||Sony / Columbia||$6,000,000||$63,580,000||-50%|
|Spider-Man: Homecoming||Sony / Columbia||$5,750,000||$306,590,000||-35%|
|Atomic Blonde||Focus Features||$4,490,000||$42,870,000||-45%|
|The Glass Castle||Lionsgate||$4,250,000||$4,250,000||NEW|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.