Mother’s Day weekend will see the release of two films targeted directly at mothers and daughters, all while Marvel’s blockbuster behemoth is set to easily lead the way again in its third frame.
In general, most holdovers should experience fairly soft drops — particularly those with predominantly male-driven audiences — while Mother’s Day will result in stronger than usual Sunday business for select titles.
Avengers: Infinity War
Third Weekend Range: $52 – 62 million
In the midst of an historic global box office run, and coming off the second biggest sophomore weekend ever, Infinity War now chases one of the biggest third weekends in North American history. Black Panther claimed the third best of those with $66.3 million less than three months ago, while 2012’s first Avengers film sits at fourth place all-time with $55.6 million. The latest Avengers get together may fall short of T’Challa’s threshold, but models currently suggest the film has a fair shot at topping the latter of those previous Marvel films.
Opening Weekend Range: $13.5 – 18.5 million
Trends are a bit scattered for this thriller’s potential, but we expect the Mother’s Day weekend release to aid upfront appeal in some measure. Twitter metrics are comparable to those of 2016’s When the Bough Breaks ($14.2 million opening weekend), although Facebook growth is significantly lower than that film’s. Given the shifting of Facebook audiences to older demographics, we’re leaning slightly toward the higher of expectations this weekend.
Life of the Party
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 22 million
Melissa McCarthy fans are expected to turn out for her latest comedy as social media metrics register far ahead of those of last year’s Snatched, which starred Amy Schumer and similarly opened over Mother’s Day weekend. Facebook growth is behind McCarthy’s own Tammy, but again, the holiday weekend’s direct relevance to this picture’s target audience could easily skew comparisons in that regard.
Top 10 Comparisons
Boxoffice currently projects this weekend’s top ten films will generate $120 million or more, which would represent just a 3 percent decline from the same period last year when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned a $65.3 million second weekend ahead of new releases Snatched ($19.5 million), King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($15.4 million), and Lowriders ($2.4 million) as part of an overall $124.5 million frame.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 13||% Change from Last Wknd|
|Avengers: Infinity War||Disney / Marvel||$58,500,000||$544,100,000||-49%|
|Life of the Party||Warner Bros. / New Line||$21,000,000||$21,000,000||NEW|
|A Quiet Place||Paramount||$6,000,000||$169,000,000||-23%|
|I Feel Pretty||STX||$3,800,000||$43,800,000||-24%|
|Rampage||Warner Bros. / New Line||$3,000,000||$89,300,000||-34%|
|Black Panther||Disney / Marvel||$2,100,000||$696,300,000||-34%|