Weekend Forecast: ‘Avengers: Infinity War’

Summer 2018 officially begins for the film industry this weekend as Disney and Marvel unleash their long and much anticipated Avengers: Infinity War.

As we’ve discussed in previous weeks, the film has consistently been tracking for a massive debut thanks to the promise of serving as a semi-finale to the first ten years of MCU titles and uniting every significant character that has been introduced (and is still alive) over the course of the previous eighteen films. You can check out our original, in-depth analysis of the film’s potential here.

The last piece of the puzzle to determining the film’s box office potential arrived in largely positive fashion this week as the mega-sequel boasts an 87 percent Rotten Tomatoes score as of this publishing. There’s no mistaking that as yet another encouraging sign for a crowd-pleasing Marvel tentpole. In fairness, though, many who have seen the film have opined that it does beg for next year’s untitled Avengers 4 as an immediate follow-up.

For those remaining spoiler free, that translates to Infinity War not acting as a standalone film in the way that Marvel’s leggiest releases have, which is a very important factor to consider in extrapolating this one’s staying power at the box office. 2016’s Civil War serves as a fresh reminder that any sort of dramatic cliffhanger might limit repeat viewings from families and casual viewers — particularly kids — if the heft of the film’s character fates proves too heavy.

On the numbers side, tracking has lost some of the ground it had leading over Black Panther at the comparable point, although that’s not unexpected since this is a more traditional sequel (as traditional as it gets for Marvel, anyway) with higher demand for presales. Infinity still leads that film by a fair margin in general metrics, though.

On social media, Infinity War encountered a brief lull last weekend before picking up momentum again this week as reviews piled in. It currently stands ahead of PantherLast Jedi, and Age of Ultron in that regard.

All of this being said, any analysis is focusing on minutia at this point as the film has a strong chance to become the first non-Star Wars film to open with a $100 million first day of release. The film is a guaranteed success in virtually every capacity. For reference, Disney’s official expectation for the weekend is in the $210 million+ range.

Final Pre-Release Tracking for Avengers: Infinity War

Domestic Opening Weekend: $225 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $550 million – $675 million

Top 10 Weekend Comparisons

Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will account for approximately $278 million. That would represent the third biggest aggregate weekend of all-time (second only to the first two weekends of Star Wars: The Force Awakens) and mark a 244 percent increase from the same weekend last year, which earned $80.8 million one week before the debut of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 29 % Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $235,000,000 $235,000,000 NEW
A Quiet Place Paramount $9,900,000 $147,400,000 -53%
I Feel Pretty STX $9,000,000 $30,500,000 -44%
Rampage Warner Bros. / New Line $6,600,000 $77,700,000 -67%
Super Troopers 2 Fox Searchlight $3,800,000 $22,600,000 -75%
Blockers Universal $3,400,000 $53,800,000 -50%
Ready Player One Warner Bros. $3,100,000 $131,500,000 -59%
Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare Universal $2,800,000 $35,000,000 -64%
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $2,600,000 $685,900,000 -47%
Isle of Dogs Fox Searchlight $1,900,000 $27,500,000 -45%

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