UPDATE: The chart below previously contained incorrect total gross projections that accidentally excluded Monday grosses. These have been corrected. We apologize for the confusion.
Following last weekend’s historic debut from Black Panther, no one envies the task ahead for a trio of new releases set to close out the final weekend of February. Our forecast follows this brief rundown of what to expect:
- Black Panther has captured a number of records in its first five days (and counting), not the least of which was the fifth biggest three-day opening weekend of all-time at $202 million. Strong word of mouth and the film’s continued momentum as a true zeitgeist player could very well help it score one of the top four sophomore weekends ever. To do that, it would need to top last year’s Beauty and the Beast ($90.4 million), while second and third places (Jurassic World‘s $106.6 million and The Avengers‘ $103 million, respectively) could also be up for grabs. To be fair, however, even strongly received films in the Marvel universe have generated slightly larger-than-expected second weekend declines (Civil War being a prime example), so a weekend closer to the $85 million range is reasonably possible and would still represent a February record take for a holdover.
- Game Night offers a counter-programmer for adult date night audiences with Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams leading the comedy that could appeal well to those who have already checked out the Marvel blockbuster. Reviews are very encouraging with an 85 percent Rotten Tomatoes score as of this report. Our target range for the weekend stands between $14 million and $20 million.
- Annihilation will similarly hope to attract adult audiences over the weekend with Natalie Portman in the lead. The key advantage will be fans of the source novel and filmmaker Alex Garland in his follow-up to Ex Machina. Reviews are likewise healthy with a 90 percent score thus far. Our target range for the weekend has slightly declined to between $9 million and $13 million.
- Every Day marks the first wide release from Orion Pictures in nearly 21 years, making forecasts and tracking more challenging with a limited base of comparison points. Early expectations suggest the film is trending in line with the recent Forever My Girl, as well as The Space Between Us and Before I Fall. (UPDATE: Orion Pictures notes that the film’s budget is a slim $5 million, making anything around or north of $3 million this weekend a positive result for the film.)
- In general, all three wide releases could suffer to some extent from the Black Panther spillover effect. Casual audiences and stragglers to the comic book phenom — in addition to repeat viewers and families — will still be out in full force this weekend. Game Night should suffer the least from this effect since Annihilation could be leaning more heavily on the adult male crowd, although both films have displayed underwhelming social media buzz up to this point.
Top 10 Comparisons
We’re currently forecasting this weekend’s top ten films will net around $163.9 million. That would come in 58 percent ahead of the same weekend last year, which rang up $103.9 million as Get Out debuted to instant-hit status with a $33.4 million opening weekend.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 25||% Change from Last Wknd|
|Black Panther||Disney / Marvel||$100,700,000||$393,650,000||-50%|
|Game Night||Warner Bros. / New Line||$16,000,000||$16,000,000||NEW|
|Peter Rabbit||Sony / Columbia||$11,000,000||$69,200,000||-37%|
|Fifty Shades Freed||Universal||$6,700,000||$89,300,000||-61%|
|Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle||Sony / Columbia||$6,100,000||$388,100,000||-23%|
|The 15:17 to Paris||Warner Bros.||$4,500,000||$33,300,000||-41%|
|The Greatest Showman||Fox||$4,100,000||$161,600,000||-18%|
|Every Day||Orion Pictures||$3,000,000||$3,000,000||NEW|