Weekend Forecast: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms,’ & ‘Nobody’s Fool’

What’s come to be known as holiday movie season officially begins this weekend with a trio of new releases looking to ignite the post-Halloween weekend and lead into a November slate that offers a lot of promise for moviegoers and exhibitors.

Poised to lead the way will be Fox’s Bohemian Rhapsody, the long awaited biopic featuring Rami Malek as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury. Social media activity has been impressive leading up to release, with Facebook activity far outpacing that of A Star Is Born on a consistent basis. Twitter trends are highly encouraging as well, although not quite on par with ASIB or Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again during their pre-release windows.

Bohemian‘s traditional tracking tips the scale back in Rhapsody‘s favor with significantly higher interest among men under 25 and comparable interest levels among other demographics, while our Trailer Impact surveys indicate higher Average Positive Interest and Recall scores than ASIB. With a brief IMAX run to help boost opening weekend revenue, we suspect the film is in position to beat Fox’s $35 million projection and approach a $40 million+ frame, although it’s worth noting that modest reviews could be a factor to watch for.

Disney returns to the market with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms this weekend after taking most of the fall season off from new releases. The film is hoping to get a jump start on Christmastime with a notable ensemble cast as part of a recognizable brand. Social media and traditional tracking have generally positioned the film behind the pace of recent live action Disney flicks like A Wrinkle In Time and Christopher Robin, pacing more closely to The BFG.

The studio projects a Nutcracker debut in the low-to-mid $20 million range, although we can’t rule out a debut in the upper teen million range with the possibility that the film will be back-loaded due to the holiday corridor ahead in November and December. Growing interest among families for next week’s The Grinch could also pull some viewers away from Nutcracker this weekend.

Meanwhile, Paramount is hoping to capitalize on Tiffany Haddish’s continued rise to stardom with Nobody’s FoolFresh off the success of Night SchoolUncle Drew, and last year’s Girls Trip, her fans — as well as the Tyler Perry faithful — should help the comedy counter-program this weekend. Twitter activity is comparable to Perry’s most recent producing effort earlier this year (Acrimony), with traditional tracking in the same realm as November 2016’s Almost Christmas. The studio expects a mid-to-high teen million debut.

Top 10 v. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $120 million. That would represent a 27 percent decline from the same frame last year when Thor: Ragnarok smashed its way to $122.7 million on opening weekend, driving an overall $164.6 million top ten in tandem with the debut of A Bad Moms Christmas.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 4 % Change from Last Wknd
Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $40,700,000 $40,700,000 NEW
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Disney $19,500,000 $19,500,000 NEW
Halloween (2018) Universal $15,800,000 $155,200,000 -50%
Nobody’s Fool Paramount $14,500,000 $14,500,000 NEW
A Star Is Born Warner Bros. $9,500,000 $164,200,000 -32%

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Alex Edghill contributed to research for this report