This weekend officially kicks off both the month of April and the second quarter of 2017. Following a record-setting first three months — driven by a robust March — the frame should prove to be the quietest in some time as far as new releases are concerned.
Smurfs: The Lost Village had been tracking for a debut north of $20 million in recent weeks, but our outlook for the film’s debut has significantly softened after The Boss Baby‘s impressive over-performance last weekend. Given the two films’ crossover audience of families with young children, we’re now expecting a debut in the mid-teen millions range. Social media buzz has been comparable to last year’s Ice Age: Collision Course, although Smurfs enters a tougher non-summer market as spring break has ended for many schools. Expect long legs as opposed to a big debut.
Going In Style also debuts this weekend, offering something for older crowds that don’t typically head to the theater very often. The closest comparison here is Last Vegas, although interest levels aren’t tracking as highly as that 2013 comedy. Still, Twitter and Facebook activity have been in line with that film, so it’s possible for Style to beat industry expectations. Nevertheless, an opening somewhere around the $10 million line looks most likely. Likewise, this is the kind of film that should be playing well throughout April rather than breakout on opening weekend.
Meanwhile, The Case for Christ opens one week ahead of Easter as it hopes to build word of mouth among faith-based audiences. As with most Pure Flix releases, expectations are modest for the low-budget film that will also look to leg its way out in semi-wide release.
Of course, none of the openers look like a challenge for The Boss Baby or Beauty and the Beast. The former should ring up another first place victory this weekend, while the latter will continue to ride its momentum up the all-time charts with a second place finish in its fourth frame.
Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, April 9||% Change|
|The Boss Baby||Fox||$28,000,000||$90,000,000||-44.22%|
|Beauty and the Beast (2017)||Disney||$24,980,000||$431,080,000||-45.00%|
|Smurfs: The Lost Village||Sony / Columbia||$14,500,000||$14,500,000||NEW|
|Going In Style||Warner Bros. / New Line||$9,500,000||$9,500,000||NEW|
|Ghost in the Shell (2017)||Paramount||$7,500,000||$31,520,000||-59.84%|
|Power Rangers (2017)||Lionsgate||$6,390,000||$75,060,000||-55.00%|
|Kong: Skull Island||Warner Bros.||$5,300,000||$155,730,000||-38.28%|
|The Case for Christ||Pure Flix||$3,500,000||$3,500,000||NEW|
|Life (2017)||Sony / Columbia||$2,780,000||$27,060,000||-49.93%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this forecast.