Weekend Forecast: ‘Christopher Robin,’ ‘Spy Who Dumped Me,’ & ‘Darkest Minds’ Take On Reigning ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’

August is set to kick off with what could be a close race for the top spot at the box office between a new release and last week’s top film, Mission: Impossible – Fallout.

Disney’s Christopher Robin
Opening Weekend Range: $26 – 35 million

Multiple generations of Winnie the Pooh fans are expected to help turn this live action imagining into a successful new adventure for audiences young and old. Twitter activity has trended far ahead of comparable titles like Peter Rabbit and Pete’s Dragon, while Facebook growth far outstrips that of the latter. Traditional tracking suggests the film could match the debut of Disney’s previous live-action effort earlier this year, A Wrinkle In Time, while the staggered overseas release positions Christopher Robin for a healthy global run.

Disney expects a domestic weekend in the high $20 millions to $30 million.

The Darkest Minds
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 11 million

Unfortunately, the young adult novel adaptation craze of the 2000s and early 2010s has faded, which is a driving factor behind Boxoffice’s forecasts. Social media buzz for this release is pacing significantly behind that of The 5th WaveMortal Instruments: City of Bones, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.

Fox expects a weekend around $10 million.

The Spy Who Dumped Me
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 18 million

Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon are the keys to helping this generate a strong female audience on opening weekend, potentially serving as the mirror of what led to The Hitman’s Bodyguard‘s success one year ago this month. While Twitter activity is fairly solid this week, it trails the overall trends of films like Rough Night and Bad Moms — which opened on two opposite ends of the spectrum over the past two summers.

Lionsgate expects a weekend in the low teen million range.

Top 10

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $118 million+. That would mark at least a 12 percent increase from the same frame last year when The Dark Tower and Kidnap debuted as part of an overall $105.4 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Although slightly favoring Christopher Robin by a slim margin, we currently project this weekend’s race for first place between it and Mission: Impossible – Fallout will be too close to call until the weekend.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 5 % Change from Last Wknd
Disney’s Christopher Robin Disney $31,500,000 $31,500,000 NEW
Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $31,500,000 $117,500,000 -49%
The Spy Who Dumped Me Lionsgate $14,400,000 $14,400,000 NEW
The Darkest Minds Fox $8,400,000 $8,400,000 NEW
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Universal $7,900,000 $89,000,000 -48%

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