Correction: A previous version of this story reported most recent prior forecast How to Be a Latin Lover‘s weekend forecast as $2.25 million. This was in error, having been meant to reflect Friday’s opening day prediction, and has been corrected below to our of $6.5 million. We apologize for the confusion.
Original Story: We’ve arrived at the second of two expected soft box office weekends before summer officially begins next week. What was once a slate of three wide releases on April 28 is now just one wide release, one moderate-wide opener, and one limited opener to wrap up the month. Our analysis and forecast:
- The Circle is based on Dave Eggers’ bestselling novel of the same name, giving it some credentials heading into the weekend. Emma Watson is fresh off the massively successful Beauty and the Beast remake, and combining adult appeal through co-star Tom Hanks makes this (potentially) one of STX Entertainment’s more broadly appealing releases to date.
- How to Be a Latin Lover will aim to counter-program among Latino moviegoers as fans of Eugenio Derbez may come out. He previously led Instructions Not Included to excellent mid-range box office success in 2013.
- Sleight is being marketed toward teens and young adults, and mostly healthy reviews are an upside.
- The Circle has the unfortunate distinction of being branded a “YA” (Young Adult) movie, which is a sub-genre that has quickly lost traction at the box office over the past few years.
- Latin Lover is slated to open in around 1,000 theaters — which would be more than Instructions, but general buzz doesn’t seem to be as encouraging for this release. Latino audiences are also a big driver of Fate of the Furious already.
- Sleight‘s last minute change to a limited release in 550 theaters will undoubtedly undercut any ability to break out beyond expectations. The studio notes that a debut between $1.5 million and $2 million would be considered successful. Our official forecast falls slightly below that range, though.
- In general, the last weekend before May is notorious for delivering lukewarm attendance as audiences of varying ages wrap up the school year and await the next big film — in this case, next week’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, April 30||% Change|
|The Fate of the Furious||Universal||$19,200,000||$192,430,000||-50.00%|
|The Circle||STX Entertainment||$10,500,000||$10,500,000||NEW|
|The Boss Baby||Fox||$9,530,000||$148,710,000||-25.00%|
|How to Be a Latin Lover||Pantelion||$6,500,000||$6,500,000||NEW|
|Beauty and the Beast (2017)||Buena Vista||$6,280,000||$479,620,000||-35.00%|
|Going in Style (2017)||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$3,680,000||$37,060,000||-25.00%|
|Born in China||Buena Vista||$3,590,000||$9,820,000||-25.00%|
|Smurfs: The Lost Village||Sony / Columbia||$3,170,000||$37,460,000||-35.00%|
|Unforgettable (2017)||Warner Bros.||$2,630,000||$8,970,000||-45.00%|
|The Promise (2017)||Open Road Films||$2,460,000||$8,350,000||-40.00%|
|The Lost City of Z||Bleecker Street||$1,270,000||$4,320,000||-40.00%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.