Weekend Forecast: ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ Eyes Labor Day Dominance as ‘Operation Finale’ & ‘Kin’ Debut, ‘Searching’ Expands

The coming Labor Day weekend is on pace to be one of the strongest in the past few years, thanks in large part to the continued breakout success of Crazy Rich Asians. Following the rom-com’s stunning second weekend hold, word of mouth should continue to drive it over the four-day frame with little in the way of direct competition hitting the market. The film is essentially blazing its own path at the moment, so a four-day frame anywhere between $28-35 million could be on the table.

Among the openers, Operation Finale boasts the most potential as a period thriller aimed at adult audiences craving a taste of serious fare after a summer packed with sequels, superheroes, and special effects. With a Wednesday debut, key comparisons at this point include films like The November ManThe Debt, and The American — each of which bowed on the Wednesday before Labor Day in recent years.

Searching will expand into semi-wide release (an estimated 1,200 theaters) with strong reviews in its arsenal, but middling awareness among general audiences due to a limited marketing campaign. Still, the film’s $43,196 per-theater average from nine locations last week provides a solid base to build from. A four-day expansion between $3-6 million appears likely.

Unfortunately, Kin is tracking more modestly as social media activity paces similar to Hotel Artemis and the 2016 Labor Day sci-fi release, Morgan. Revenue from PLF screens could help it exceed expectations, but we’re on the conservative end for now.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice estimates this four-day weekend’s top ten films will earn close to $100 million combined. If that portion of the market hits the century mark, it would represent a strong 62+ percent increase from last year’s extended Labor Day weekend when the top ten earned $61.7 million in the wake of no new wide releases for the holiday corridor.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 4-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Monday, September 3 % Change from Last Wknd
Crazy Rich Asians Warner Bros. $29,500,000 $118,400,000 +19%
The Meg Warner Bros. $15,000,000 $125,300,000 +17%
Operation Finale MGM $10,400,000 $12,200,000 NEW
Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $10,200,000 $207,700,000 +26%
Disney’s Christopher Robin Disney $8,000,000 $88,500,000 +28%
Searching* Sony / Screen Gems $3,600,000 $4,100,000 +819%
Kin* Lionsgate $3,500,000 $3,500,000 NEW

* = not ranked


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