Weekend Forecast: ‘Crazy Rich Asians,’ ‘Mile 22,’ & ‘Alpha’

On the heels of The Meg‘s breakout debut, August continues to look much stronger than once expected as another new release looks to exceed early indicators. Crazy Rich Asians is riding a strong wave of buzz thanks to excellent pre-sales that have matched/exceeded films like Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and Girls Trip, while its Twitter activity is measuring far ahead of the pace of fellow popular novel adaptation, Me Before You.

Intriguingly, Atom Tickets reports that 65 percent of surveyed users are planning to see the film despite the fact that only 8 percent have read the book. Still, as a mid-week opener with considerable fan front-loading potential, forecast ranges are increasingly wide with improving upside thanks to the film’s strong reviews.

Meanwhile, Mile 22 is outpacing the likes of Den of Thieves and American Made on the social media front. Male-driven action films have made a habit of over-performing this year, and with a solid cast led by Mark Wahlberg, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same thing happen with this one.

Unfortunately, Alpha continues to track modestly following several release delays.

Top 10 v. Last Year

Boxoffice estimates this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $105 million or more. That would represent a 40 percent+ increase from the same frame last year when The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky opened as part of a $75.7 million top ten weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 19 % Change from Last Wknd
Crazy Rich Asians Warner Bros. $21,600,000 $32,000,000 NEW
The Meg Warner Bros. $21,000,000 $84,600,000 -54%
Mile 22 STX $18,000,000 $18,000,000 NEW
Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $13,300,000 $184,200,000 -31%
Disney’s Christopher Robin Disney $8,200,000 $66,500,000 -37%
Alpha* Studio 8 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 NEW

* denotes rank outside the top five

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News & Analysis

Weekend Actuals: Hobbs & Shaw ($25.2M) Fends Off Newcomers Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark ($20.9M), Dora and the Lost City of Gold ($17.4M) to Remain No. 1

Chris Eggertsen  • 

Sunday Update: Last weekend’s leader fended off several newcomers, as Universal’s Fast & Furious spinoff Hobbs & Shaw repeated on top with $25.2M. Its sophomore weekend decline of -57.9% is actually a little better than for any of the franchise’s most recent installments: -61.1%...