Weekend Forecast: ‘Escape Room’ to Offer First New Release of 2019

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Following a solid holiday corridor to cap off 2018, the new year begins with one wide release as holdovers will continue to remain the strength of the current market.

Escape Room
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

PROS:

  • Positioned as the only wide release this weekend, teen and young adult crowds who have already checked out the holiday season’s high profile films could drive attendance.
  • The horror genre has continued to over-perform more often than not, and a PG-13 rating here further aids the potential of ticket sales to those under 18. The lack of major titles in the genre since Halloween could also boost interest.
  • Optimistic pre-release tracking trends have compared well to Truth or Dare, although the studio conservatively expects around $10 million this weekend.

CONS:

  • After a busy holiday slate, and with no franchise-like brand name, it’s reasonable to expect initial demand will be more conservative than films like Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare or last January’s Insidious: The Last Key.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $112 million. That would represent a 22 percent decline from the same frame last year when Insidious: The Last Key debuted in second place behind Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, while ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedand The Greatest Showman.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 6 % Change from Last Wknd
Aquaman Warner Bros. $28,000,000 $257,000,000 -46%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $19,000,000 $141,900,000 -33%
Escape Room Sony / Columbia $13,600,000 $13,600,000 NEW
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $12,800,000 $133,400,000 -32%
Bumblebee Paramount $12,700,000 $97,000,000 -39%
The Mule Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $80,100,000 -34%
Vice Annapurna $5,400,000 $29,300,000 -30%
Second Act STX $4,800,000 $32,800,000 -35%
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $4,300,000 $186,800,000 -36%
Holmes and Watson Sony / Columbia $3,500,000 $28,500,000 -53%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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