The final weekend before summer movie season (yes, in April) officially kicks off next week with Avengers: Infinity War will see the release of Amy Schumer’s latest headliner, a long-awaited sequel to a cult classic comedy, and a low-key thriller hoping to counter-program.
Schumer’s I Feel Pretty boasts the most commercial potential among openers this weekend with social media buzz coming in notably ahead of the star’s own Snatched last May. Pretty‘s trailer debuted to a wave of positive reactions on the Ellen show earlier this year, and serves as one of the few high profile, female-driven films in the market between now and early June. Studio expectations hover in the $13-15 million range, but current models suggest the film could perform above that with traditional and social metrics both tracking closely to the recent Blockers and 2014’s The Other Woman.
Super Troopers 2 will rally fans of the original 2002 cult classic, and with its low crowdfunded budget could be a success even with a debut in the mid-single digit millions. That’s approximately where the film is tracking (along the lines of 2015’s Hot Tub Time Machine 2) in both social and traditional metrics. The film will likely come in ahead of semi-wide opener Traffik, which will bow in 1,000 locations and carries a studio expectation of $3-4 million for the weekend.
Meanwhile, A Quiet Place could return to the top spot this weekend as stellar word of mouth continues to drive the survival thriller. Some of the female audience may migrate to Schumer’s new release, but the film otherwise has been the recipient of excellent staying power through its first week and a half. Dwayne Johnson’s Rampage won’t face any significant new competition this weekend, giving it a strong shot to compete for second place — a race that might prove close if I Feel Pretty reaches the high end of expectations.
Top 10 Comparisons
Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will account for approximately $94.3 million. That would represent a 4 percent improvement from $90.9 million over the same weekend last year when The Fate of the Furious ruled with a $38.4 million sophomore frame over openers Born in China, Unforgettable, The Promise, and Phoenix Forgotten (which debuted outside the top ten).
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 22||% Change from Last Wknd|
|A Quiet Place||Paramount||$23,000,000||$134,100,000||-30%|
|Rampage||Warner Bros. / New Line||$17,200,000||$62,600,000||-52%|
|I Feel Pretty||STX||$17,000,000||$17,000,000||NEW|
|Ready Player One||Warner Bros.||$7,300,000||$126,200,000||-37%|
|Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare||Universal||$6,700,000||$29,200,000||-64%|
|Super Troopers 2||Fox Searchlight||$6,200,000||$6,200,000||NEW|
|Black Panther||Disney / Marvel||$4,000,000||$680,600,000||-30%|
|Isle of Dogs||Fox Searchlight||$3,900,000||$25,000,000||-29%|
|I Can Only Imagine||Roadside Attractions||$2,700,000||$79,700,000||-35%|
Share this post