Marvel’s latest blockbuster, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, is widely expected to continue rolling this weekend with an easy repeat performance in first place. Historically, Marvel films have dropped between 58-60% on the second weekend after kicking off May. Vol. 2‘s positive word of mouth should help this flick stay in line with that trend.
Still, two new flicks will aim to find an audience with Mother’s Day landing on Sunday. Our analysis and forecast:
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
- The built-in character name branding is an asset for fans of Arthurian legend and moviegoers who are looking for popcorn entertainment outside of the comic book movie realm.
- Director Guy Ritchie has a base of loyal fans that may also prove helpful to business this weekend.
- Social media activity has been decent up to this point with Twitter and Facebook both showing healthy signs of continued growth in recent weeks when it comes to overall volume of mentions. This is likely driven, at least in part, by the studio’s recent free screenings around the country.
- Unfortunately, critics’ reviews will probably counter any potential built-in appeal. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 24 percent as of this writing.
- Well-known and successful as he is, Ritchie isn’t exactly a household name when it comes to box office drawing power. The same can be said for leading man Charlie Hunnam.
- The downside of the film’s social media footprint is its Twitter sentiment. Negative reviews have been driving the positive-to-negative comment ratio downward in recent days.
- Amy Schumer’s rise to stardom over the last few years is arguably this comedy’s biggest advantage going into opening weekend, particularly as she’s coming off the success of Trainwreck two years ago. Goldie Hawn’s presence could also help with older audiences.
- As Mother’s Day falls on Sunday, this would be a good option for mother/daughter and girls’-night-out entertainment.
- Unfortunately, tracking has been notably below that of similar films like Trainwreck, Tammy, The Other Woman, etc. Male interest is particularly absent. The comedy’s social media buzz is also severely lacking, with its current level of Facebook fans being the biggest concern.
- Reviews are also souring expectations for a breakout opening here as the film stands at 35 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently. This film is probably more review-proof than King Arthur, though, which translates to a possible upset finish by Snatched in second place behind Guardians this weekend.
Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, May 14||% Change|
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||Disney||$61,000,000||$247,247,000||-58.50%|
|King Arthur: Legend of the Sword||Warner Bros.||$17,900,000||$17,900,000||NEW|
|The Fate of the Furious||Universal||$3,859,729||$213,467,676||-55.00%|
|The Boss Baby||Fox||$3,884,932||$161,524,315||-35.00%|
|Beauty and the Beast (2017)||Disney||$3,561,424||$492,656,003||-30.00%|
|How to be a Latin Lover||Pantelion||$2,572,452||$24,701,901||-50.00%|
|The Circle (2017)||STX Entertainment||$1,979,523||$18,918,186||-50.00%|
|Baahubali 2: The Conclusion||Great India Films||$1,357,624||$18,674,754||-60.00%|
|Smurfs: The Lost Village||Sony / Columbia||$1,011,133||$41,970,425||-45.00%|
|Going in Style (2017)||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$917,692||$42,117,404||-50.00%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.