Weekend Forecast: ‘The Hitman’s Bodyguard’ & ‘Logan Lucky’

August’s midpoint weekend is set for two new wide releases with The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. How will the weekend shake out?

PROS:

  • The Hitman’s Bodyguard (Lionsgate/Summit) boasts two popular leading men in Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson with a potentially crowd-pleasing, chemistry-driven, action/comedy tone that could appeal equally to men and women. The shortage of breakout films in recent weeks could also be an advantage for audiences looking to check out something new.
  • Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street) similarly is hoping to leverage a strong cast led by Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, and Daniel Craig into low-key success this weekend.  The film’s strong reviews (92 percent from 76 critics) may help in the long run, while appealing largely to men, southern audiences, and possibly NASCAR fans may help it carve out an audience despite direct competition from the weekend’s other new release. In fact, new fan anticipation on Flixster has outpaced that of Hitman’s Bodyguard over the past week.

CONS:

  • Hitman’s Bodyguard is currently the recipient of a disappointing 39 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 54 critics. If that doesn’t budge upward before the weekend, the film could become the latest victim of the so-called “RT effect” in a summer where audiences have often steered clear of poorly reviewed films. By the same token, social media buzz is lacking at this point as it trails the likes of War Dogs and 2 Guns on Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster by significant margins.
  • Coming from Bleecker Street and, somewhat famously, representing a new distribution strategy under the guidance of director Steven Soderbergh, awareness and marketing reach are questionable in the pre-release window despite the film’s prolific cast and strong reviews. In addition to underwhelming tracking from traditional sources (which could be overlooking key southern demographics), Twitter trends have reflected this challenge as the film lags behind the paces of Baby Driver and The Nice Guys. However, Logan Lucky boasts more Facebook fans than Nice Guys did at the same point before opening day.

The Weekend Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 20 % Change
The Hitman’s Bodyguard Lionsgate / Summit $16,800,000 $16,800,000 NEW
Annabelle: Creation Warner Bros. (New Line) $14,500,000 $63,260,000 -59%
Logan Lucky Bleecker Street $9,500,000 $9,500,000 NEW
Dunkirk Warner Bros. $7,070,000 $165,210,000 -35%
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Open Road Films $5,010,000 $16,920,000 -40%
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $4,220,000 $313,650,000 -30%
Girls Trip Universal $3,820,000 $103,640,000 -41%
The Emoji Movie Sony / Columbia $3,800,000 $70,576,000 -41%
The Dark Tower Sony / Columbia $3,520,000 $41,060,000 -55%
The Glass Castle Lionsgate $3,040,000 $9,830,000 -35%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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