The final weekend of a record-breaking October is looking to be a relatively quiet one on the new release front, but plenty of holdovers will combine for a strong finish to the month before the industry’s holiday corridor officially kicks off next week.
Leading the pack in its second frame will be Halloween, fresh off the second biggest October opening in history. Although the film experienced some natural front-loading by fans last Thursday and Friday, the lack of major competition this weekend and the proximity to next Wednesday’s haunted holiday will make it a natural choice for audiences again — especially with positive word of mouth contributing to the film’s momentum. Additionally, Halloween will begin a one-week run in IMAX (stealing screens from fellow Universal release, First Man), which should help pad the weekend-to-weekend drop depending on demand for the film in that format.
A Star Is Born and Venom will continue to display their legs this weekend as well with no direct competition entering the market. We again expect the former of the two to claim second place for a fourth straight frame.
Hoping to debut in the top four, Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will target adult male audiences thanks to an appealing ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, and Common. Tracking and social media growth have been slow compared to last fall’s Geostorm and this past summer’s Mile 22, but an opening in the high single digit millions is achievable based on current on trends.
Although an official theater count was not available at the time of this report, A24’s Mid90s is expected to begin a nationwide expansion this weekend after its excellent $258K platform release in four theaters last weekend. Boxoffice forecasts Jonah Hill’s well-reviewed directorial debut could crack the top ten with around $2 million or more based on unofficial theater count estimates.
Meanwhile, Pure Flix’s Indivisible (830 locations) and Universal’s Johnny English Strikes Again (500 locations) will open in semi-wide release with figures that could see either (or both) debut outside the top ten with roughly $2 million each based on current metrics. For the low-budget faith-based film, that would be a fair start, while the comedy sequel is built as an international player as it prepares to cross $100 million in global earnings.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will generate approximately $94 million. That would translate to nearly a 63 percent increase from the same weekend last year when Jigsaw, Thank You for Your Service, and Suburbicon opened as part of a struggling $57.9 million top ten market.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 28||% Change from Last Wknd|
|A Star Is Born||Warner Bros.||$13,800,000||$148,200,000||-28%|
|Venom||Sony / Columbia||$11,400,000||$188,000,000||-37%|
|Hunter Killer||Lionsgate / Summit||$8,800,000||$8,800,000||NEW|
|Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween||Sony / Columbia||$7,000,000||$37,900,000||-28%|
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