Weekend Forecast: ‘Independence Day: Resurgence,’ ‘Free State Of Jones,’ ‘The Shallows’ & ‘The Neon Demon’

Four new wide releases will attempt to brave the waters owned by Finding Dory this weekend. First up is Fox’s sequel Independence Day: Resurgence which will try to rekindle the magic created by its predecessor 20 years earlier. STX Entertainment and Matthew McConaughey will bring their period piece Free State Of Jones, while Columbia will debut its shark thriller The Shallows. Lastly, the psychological thriller The Neon Demon by Broad Green Pictures will also try its hand at drawing out patrons who are looking for a change of pace.

Independence Day: Resurgence

PROS:

• Independance Day was one of Fox’s most successful films ever, securing the top spot amongst all films in earnings in 1996, grossing almost 30 percent more than its nearest rival.
• With Independence Day weekend not having huge competition, this could potentially have a very leggy first two weeks which should greatly help its overall box office.

CONS:

• Early reviews have been mixed at best.
• While his box office draw has waned in recent years, the first film was one of Will Smith’s most iconic roles, and arguably the turning point in his career from television star to movie star, his omission here is glaring to many.
• With over 20 years passing since the first film, this is not a sequel — which has a lot going for it in terms of momentum.
• Social media has been generally atrocious across both Facebook and Twitter where it has performed behind virtually every similar blockbuster comparison.

Free State Of Jones

PROS:

• It could provide a much needed counter-programming option for movie patrons who are looking for something different than the typical summer offerings.
• Matthew McConaughey is on fire at the moment with his last four releases being all critical and/or box office successes – Interstellar, The Wolf Of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club and Mud.

CONS:

• Early word from critics have not been kind in the least bit which won’t help matters, especially since the older crowd it is squarely aimed at are perhaps the most influences by critics. Poor reviews for a historical film based on a true story are almost never good news for its potential box office.
• Social media buzz has been non-existent, even taking into consideration the overall lower levels for older-targeted films.

The Shallows

PROS:

• Buzz on Twitter and Facebook has been strong, especially on Facebook where it has managed over 400,000 likes prior to release.
• Shark-themed films have a history of success at the box office dating back to Jaws and its numerous sequels.

CONS:

• The market is crowded for screamers at the moment with The Conjuring 2 and The Neon Demon all competing for box office dollars amongst the fans.
• The film was slated to open next Wednesday up until recently. Last minute switches can be confusing for audiences and the word might not have permeated to all interested which could limit its opening weekend potential.

The Neon Demon

PROS:

• Director Nicolas Winding Refn is a very talented director who has been a hit with critics and film festivals for many years.

CONS:

• Awareness is low in general for the film with social media being quiet all around and its release date being set for less than a month.
• Refn’s films have not typical been box office dynamite, as their art house feel often falls flat with the general movie-goer. He currently only has one release in North America (out of four total) to gross more than $1 million.

Top 10 Forecast

Box Office Pro forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will generate $183.8 million. That would mark a 6% increase from last year’s $174.1 million when an aging Jurassic World and sophomore Inside Out bested the disappointing sequel Ted 2.

Check out our complete weekend forecast below.