The final weekend of the fall box office season is upon us, but will any of this weekend’s openers click with audiences before the holiday season officially begins next week? Our final analysis:
- Jigsaw marks a return to a franchise that stood as a Halloween staple between 2004 and 2010. This sequel/reboot is well-timed close to Halloween, while premium screen showings could serve to inflate revenues over the weekend among dedicated fans. Continuing the trend of the genre, its low budget all but guarantees some level of financial success for Lionsgate.
- Suburbicon boasts an appealing cast led by Matt Damon under the helm of director George Clooney and the Coen Brothers’ script. The film’s aim will largely be toward older audiences not as interested in the season’s usual paranormal/slasher/torture-themed fright fests.
- Thank You for Your Service has generated fairly healthy Facebook activity and could appeal to military veterans as well as fans of David Finkel’s well-reviewed book.
- Jigsaw may be returning after a seven-year hiatus, but recent horror genre revisits such as Rings, Blair Witch, and Scream 4 have us very cautious in the potential for a film that looks to be mimicking what it’s already done before. Twitter activity trails that of the aforementioned Rings reboot, while the so-called “torture porn” era of successful horrors essentially ended with Saw 3D in 2010. Meanwhile, competition for genre fans will be tough this weekend as many audiences are likely to stay home for the release of Netflix’s Stranger Things Season 2 — or simply opt for IT or Happy Death Day ahead of Halloween.
- Suburbicon‘s middling reviews will keep away much of the target adult audience. Social media buzz has failed to generate much interest, falling well behind the likes of mother!, Logan Lucky, and The Nice Guys.
- Thank You for Your Service recalls a similar under-the-radar military drama that struggled to generate much interest — that being last fall’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. The common phrase title has made Twitter tracking null and void in many cases, but Facebook growth has paced well behind that of Detroit. Meanwhile, Only the Brave may cannibalize some of Service‘s potential audience thanks to its positive word of mouth.
The Weekend Forecast:
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, October 29||% Change|
|Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween||Lionsgate||$11,900,000||$37,200,000||-44%|
|Happy Death Day||Universal||$4,600,000||$48,000,000||-51%|
|Blade Runner 2049||Warner Bros. / Sony / Alcon||$4,000,000||$81,000,000||-46%|
|Thank You for Your Service||Universal||$3,900,000||$3,900,000||NEW|
|Only the Brave||Sony / Columbia||$3,500,000||$12,000,000||-41%|
|It||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$1,900,000||$323,300,000||-46%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report