Weekend Forecast: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ & ‘Incredibles 2’ to Repeat as ‘Sicario: Day of the Soldado’ & ‘Uncle Drew’ Open

The top two films at the box office this weekend will remain unchanged from last as June comes to a close and the summer movie calendar approaches its midway point. Two new releases could vie for solid debuts as counter-programming options, though.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Second Weekend Range: $59 – 65 million

The sequel reached — and slightly exceeded — optimistic expectations with its $148 million debut last weekend, solidifying the brand’s stronger walk-up business and lower reliance upon fan-driven crowds than other franchises during the pre-sales cycle. Word of mouth isn’t expected to drive this chapter to the same kind of staying power as its 2015 predecessor, but the lack of direct competition this weekend should ease some of the second frame hangover.

For comparison, Independence Day: Resurgence slid 59 percent in its second weekend two years ago, but its sophomore frame was slightly inflated with Sunday business due to the following Monday marking July 4th. Fallen Kingdom won’t enjoy the relative boost from the holiday’s family crowds until the middle of next week.

Incredibles 2
Third Weekend Range: $44 – 50 million

The Parr family should quickly recover from a slightly sharper-than-expected drop last weekend against Jurassic as the latter’s family appeal proved to be more direct than predicted. Incredibles 2 likewise faces no new competition this weekend as strong word of mouth propels the animated blockbuster into the heart of summer. If it lands close to Boxoffice forecasts this weekend, the film will overtake Shrek 2 ($441.2 million) as the second highest grossing animated film of all-time domestically on Sunday.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Goodwill from the original film, a solid marketing footprint, and very few choices for adult-aimed summer pics are in this sequel’s arsenal heading into the weekend. The return of popular veterans Josh Brolin and Benicio del Toro should attract fans of the original, although the lack of Emily Blunt and director Denis Villeneuve this time around may dampen other fans’ excitement for a return to the Sicario world. Competition with the World Cup remains a notable factor as well.

Unfortunately, Twitter activity trails the pace of films like Den of Thieves and the original Sicario ahead of its wide expansion in fall 2015. Recent regional events in real life could make this a somewhat timely film just as easily as they may temper the aim for escapism.

Uncle Drew
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 18 million

Tracking is skewed in various directions for the comedy hoping for a strong counter-programming play to an under-served audience. The film has been marketed strongly in target regions for the past few months, and Twitter traction heading into the weekend is well ahead of the pace of Boo! A Madea Halloween. A large and veritable ensemble of comedy and sports stars could give this significant upside for walk-up business and late blooming sales.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $162 million+. That would register as a 3 percent or greater improvement from the same weekend last year when Despicable Me 3 and Baby Driver debuted atop the box office as part of an overall $157.2 million top ten frame.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 1 % Change from Last Wknd
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal $62,000,000 $267,900,000 -58%
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $47,100,000 $441,400,000 -41%
Uncle Drew Lionsgate / Summit $16,000,000 $16,000,000 NEW
Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony / Columbia $14,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW
Ocean’s 8 Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $114,400,000 -31%
Tag Warner Bros. $5,400,000 $40,500,000 -35%
Deadpool 2 Fox $3,300,000 $310,100,000 -37%
Solo: A Star Wars Story Disney / Lucasfilm $2,600,000 $207,500,000 -42%
Hereditary A24 $2,300,000 $39,500,000 -37%
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $1,700,000 $672,800,000 -34%

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