Weekend Forecast: ‘Ocean’s 8,’ ‘Hereditary,’ & ‘Hotel Artemis’

This weekend sees the release of the fourth installment in the modern Ocean‘s franchise, replete with a new ensemble cast led by some of the popular and successful actresses working today. Overall business for the weekend should pick up noticeably from last week’s post-holiday frame.

Ocean’s 8
Opening Weekend Range: $36 – 45 million

We remain on the bullish end of expectations for a number of reasons. The strong cast led by Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, and Anne Hathaway, the built-in brand awareness, healthy presales, and generally positive reviews are but a few of the advantages in the sequel’s favor. Ultimately, though, the film’s positioning as the first high-profile, female-driven summer release remains its biggest advantage, cornering an under-served audience.

Social media trends have overtaken those of Fifty Shades Freed over the past 48 hours, while overall metrics are comparable to The Heat and 2016’s Ghostbusters remake (which had a 3D price advantage). Warner Bros. expects a debut in the mid-$30 million range.

Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 14 million

Expectations are all over the place on this one. Twitter and Facebook footprints are very modest compared to A24’s It Comes at Night, which similarly released in early June last year on the heels of positive reviews. Although word of strong presales and months of critics’ buzz have raised optimism for a possible $10 million+ opening, we’re a bit cautious for now considering A24 has a loyal grassroots following earned by their notable streak of successful art house films.

The recent trend of horror titles significantly beating expectations could play out again with this film, but the R rating will limit attendance among the crucial teen crowd. The studio is leaning toward the low end of forecasts, expecting between $6 million and $7 million this weekend.

Hotel Artemis
Opening Weekend Range: $2 – 7 million

Similarly, this release from Global Road could land on either end of the spectrum. Current models for the film’s debut closely mirror those of releases like The Hurricane Heist and Free Fire, while falling shy of The Belko Experiment. Traditional tracking is a bit more favorable for the film, per the studio’s expectations, but competing with Hereditary and the well-reviewed Upgrade may dilute potential for a stronger showing.

Top 10 Versus Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn around $102 million collectively. That estimate would mark a 26 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Wonder Woman continued to dominate the box office with a $58.5 million second weekend ahead of The Mummy ($31.7 million), It Comes at Night ($6 million), and Megan Leavey ($3.8 million) in their debuts.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 10 % Change from Last Wknd
Ocean’s 8 Warner Bros. $41,000,000 $41,000,000 NEW
Solo: A Star Wars Story Disney / Lucasfilm $14,700,000 $175,600,000 -50%
Deadpool 2 Fox $12,500,000 $277,300,000 -46%
Hereditary A24 $9,600,000 $9,600,000 NEW
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $6,800,000 $654,700,000 -35%
Adrift STX $5,400,000 $22,100,000 -54%
Book Club Paramount $5,300,000 $58,000,000 -24%
Hotel Artemis Global Road $2,500,000 $2,500,000 NEW
Upgrade BH Tilt $2,300,000 $9,400,000 -51%
Life of the Party Warner Bros. / New Line $1,600,000 $49,700,000 -54%

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