Thursday Update: While we typically hold to final forecasts published on Wednesday, The Emoji Movie‘s review embargo lifting today has proven to be a significant factor in weekend forecasts. With 22 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes as of this update, the film unfortunately stands at a 0 percent score. Simultaneously, the Flixster audience score has sunk to 60 percent — down a somewhat alarming 3 percent since Tuesday. While we stand by the reasoning that a fairly dry end of summer slate for animated releases could help the film buck online trends even more than animated films already tend to do, we’re lowering our forecast for Emoji to $26.9 million and are now forecasting that Dunkirk will repeat in first place atop the box office. Updated weekend forecasts are in the chart below.
Wednesday Report: Following strong debuts from Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk and Girls Trip last weekend, the final frame of July promises to add a bit more variety as summer begins to enter its final weeks. Who will come out on top?
The Weekend Forecast:
|The Emoji Movie||Sony / Columbia||$26,900,000||NEW|
|Atomic Blonde||Focus Features||$21,000,000||NEW|
|Spider-Man: Homecoming||Sony / Columbia||$12,200,000||-45%|
|War for the Planet of the Apes||Fox||$9,600,000||-54%|
- Atomic Blonde packs the star power of Charlize Theron, James McAvoy, and John Goodman — the former of the trio having become a strong commodity in the action genre following her turns in Mad Max: Fury Road and The Fate of the Furious. McAvoy’s stock has also risen lately with high profile successes in the Split and the X-Men franchise. Social media metrics position the film in between the trends of both John Wick films. On a $30 million production budget, the film is on good footing financially.
- The Emoji Movie serves as the last animated release from a major studio before The LEGO Ninjago Movie at the end of September. With Despicable Me 3 performing below the level of its franchise predecessors (but still healthily overall), families with young kids could be attracted to Emoji — especially if reviews turn out positive. The film’s modest $50 million production budget also sets the way for likely success.
- Although female-led films have been the biggest story of 2017 so far at the box office, action heroines (aside from Wonder Woman) still have a tough time breaking out beyond expectations — see Ghost in the Shell as a recent example. If male audiences opt to keep supporting Dunkirk, Apes, or Spider-Man, Atomic Blonde could find itself in limbo with female audiences flocking to Girls Trip.
- Internet buzz for The Emoji Movie has been generally muted, but that’s to be expected given the scoff-like reaction the film’s premise has elicited from adults and bloggers in the film community.
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.