The typical Super Bowl weekend lull is upon us as only one new release will brave the market this weekend. Studio expectations from Lionsgate and CBS have Winchester pegged for a debut between $6 million and $8 million. Various factors certainly put that range in play, although we think the teen-friendly PG-13 rating and relative lack of direct competition could help it climb slightly higher. That said, we’ve lowered our forecast from previous long range reports due to stalled social media buzz — an area where the horror genre has been known to not pick up steam until mere days before release for an original film.
Ultimately, though, we believe Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has a solid chance at returning to the top spot of the box office as its phenomenal run continues, although Maze Runner: The Death Cure might not be too far behind in its second frame. Male-driven films will be the most vulnerable over the weekend, particularly on Super Bowl Sunday, when films commonly decline anywhere between 55 and 70 percent from Saturday business.
Check out our current weekend forecast for key titles in the chart below, followed by reporting updates throughout the weekend.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 4||% Change from Last Wknd|
|Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle||Sony / Columbia||$11,300,000||$353,000,000||-30%|
|Maze Runner: The Death Cure||Fox||$10,700,000||$40,800,000||-56%|
|Winchester||Lionsgate / CBS Films||$8,500,000||$8,500,000||NEW|
|The Greatest Showman||Fox||$7,300,000||$137,000,000||-24%|
|The Shape of Water||Fox Searchlight||$4,600,000||$45,200,000||-23%|
|12 Strong||Warner Bros.||$4,000,000||$36,500,000||-54%|
|Den of Thieves||STX||$3,900,000||$35,400,000||-55%|
|Paddington 2||Warner Bros.||$3,800,000||$37,200,000||-33%|
|Star Wars: The Last Jedi||Disney / Lucasfilm||$2,300,000||$614,400,000||-46%|
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