Weekend Preview: CAPTAIN AMERICA BRAVE NEW WORLD Set to Kickstart the 2025 Box Office

The Boxoffice Podium

Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | February 14 – 16, 2025

Week 7 | February 14 – 16, 2025

1. Captain America: Brave New World
Marvel Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $80M – $90M (3-Day) | $90M – $110M (4-Day)
Showtime Market Share: 33%

Pros

• Despite a raging Red Hulk played by icon Harrison Ford, Marvel’s new entry Captain America: Brave New World is more in-line with earlier, slightly more grounded Captain America titles rather than the ensemble-driven superheroics of 2016’s Civil War. After being given a lengthy preamble in the Disney+ series The Falcon and The Winter Soldier, Anthony Mackie fully takes on the mantle that Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers held before. Boasting Presidential assassination plots and countries battling over resources, this new story may either be too close to home or right on the zeitgeist in terms of the popular consciousness right now.

• While we don’t see Brave New World getting over $100M in the 3-Day, our prediction panel’s extended 4-Day President’s Day range is $90M – $110M, which should give the movie the momentum it needs to do well through the rest of winter… if it delivers the goods. Director Julius Onah (The Cloverfield Paradox) began shooting in March 2023, but the strike and a general creative reset at Marvel led to delays (originally planned for May 3, 2024) as well as extensive reshoots alongside a name change (originally New World Order). New action sequences and an extra villain (Giancarlo Esposito’s Sidewinder) were added in post, so let’s hope all the tinkering was for the better. Although full reviews are not yet live, early reactions are mixed-to-positive.

Cons

The post-pandemic Marvel era has been considerably less mighty for the studio than in the before times, especially when it comes to opening weekends. Here’s a breakdown of post-pandemic Marvel by Frame 1 grosses…

• Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) – $260.1M opening/$1.921B WW
• Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) – $211.4M opening/$1,338B WW
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) – $187.4M opening/$952.2M WW
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) – $181.3M opening/$853.98M WW
• Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) – $144.16M opening/$760.9M WW
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) – $118.4M opening/$845.16M WW
• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) – $106.1M opening/$463.6M WW
• Black Widow (2021) – $80.3M opening/$379.75M WW
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) – $75.38M opening/$432.2M WW
• Eternals (2021) – $71.2M opening/$401.7M WW
• The Marvels (2023) – $46.1M opening/$199.7M WW

To compare, pre-COVID Kevin Feige’s studio had a one-year streak between 2017 and 2018 where five movies in a row all debuted above $100M (between $117M and $257.69M). Post-COVID, they actually had an even better streak of six films from Dec 2021 to February 2023 all open above $100M ($106.1M-$260.1M). However, they had four movies debut well below that, including their lowest-opening ever for The Marvels. It’s looking like Brave New World will play like the first week of Black Widow, which is not wonderful considering that 2021 movie came out while a good deal of the country was still unvaccinated and Disney+ offered it up on their Premier Access platform day-and-date.

Still, a $100M+ 4-day would be nothing to sneeze at. Yes, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania lost money in theaters but was ultimately profitable for Disney. Yes, The Marvels was a $200M+ write down, forcing Marvel to regroup and only release one film in 2024. And yes, Marvel Studios has frustrated their fanbase with a lack of culminating Avengers-style events in Phase 4 and 5 (to be rectified next year). Yet all that upheaval is relative for a studio that has ultimately grossed $8.5 billion off the backs of 11 films in the after times (average $700M+ gross). Like Pixar before them, Marvel’s track record may be more compromised now but their movies are still some of the safest bets out there for the studio and theaters, especially when you factor in merch. Most importantly, none of these studio profitability questions will carry much weight for an exhibition sector eagerly waiting for the first tentpole blockbuster of 2025. Regal alone is offering up Red Hulk popcorn buckets, Funko Pops, and drink toppers.

2. Paddington in Peru
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $16M – $20M (3-Day) | $18M – 22M (4-Day)
Showtime Market Share: 13%

Pros

• Author Michael Bond’s classic British children’s character returns to the big screen in an all-new adventure… well, kinda new. StudioCanal’s Paddington in Peru actually opened in UK cinemas on November 8 of last year, and has since began play in more major territories including Australia, Russia, and China. All-in the international gross currently stands at $103.8M on a reported $75M budget. With actor Ben Whishaw returning to voice the gentle title bear along with most of the original cast, the threequel is staking out the family audiences with younger children who might be frightened of the more political/violent Captain America entry. The previous two films in 2014 and 2017 opened domestically to $18.96M and $11M, respectively.

Cons

• The previous two films’ writer/director Paul King was too busy helming the hit musical Wonka to return to the director’s chair on Paddington in Peru, although he did have a hand in penning the story. In his place is British music video helmer Dougal Wilson making his feature directorial debut, and it appears to be job well done at least critically, with Rotten Tomatoes critical currently at 93%. The previous two were at 96% and 99%, respectively. The catch is that the previous two Paddington romps did considerably less well domestically than they did overseas, with 2017’s critical darling Paddington 2 tanking in the U.S. with only $40.96M compared to the first’s $76.2M. Both pictures did about the same business worldwide ($250M vs $241M). Our panel thinks there’s been enough residual goodwill and streaming popularity towards the franchise in the intervening eight years that the new movie will certainly uptick from the last one.

3. Dog Man
Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation | Week 3
Weekend Range: $5M – $7M (3-Day) | $6 – $8M (4-Day)
Showtime Market Share: 9%

Pros

• With a tiny-by-industry-standards budget of $40M, Dog Man is well on the road to profitability despite only nabbing $54.96M domestic so far and $67M globally. The books by Dav Pilkey are globally popular and translated to many languages, so hopefully the film will pick up steam as more territories slowly launch well into April.

Cons

• Between the juggernaut that is Captain America and the new family go-to Paddington, Dog Man will get cornered out of the market this weekend. It’s also worth noting the DreamWorks’ performance against 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (from which Dog Man is a spinoff), which had only made $44.4M domestic by Frame 2. Third frame was $7.18M, so let’s see if this dog has legs.