The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 14 – 16, 2025
Week 46 | November 14 – 16, 2025
1. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $18M – $25M
Pros
- Lionsgate is trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat with their third rogue magician film titled Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The previous two Lionsgate entries opened to $29M and $22M, respectively, and the threequel should perform in a similar ballpark. Previous ensemble Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fisher, Morgan Freeman, and others return for this third act, although Mark Ruffalo’s role is reportedly small. Like its main competitor, Running Man (similar 3300+ screen count), the new Now You See Me is earning middling notices from critics (current 61% on RT), but it has the advantage in familiarity as well as a more accommodating PG-13 rating.
Cons
- The last time Lionsgate had a #1 this year was for two January action dumps (Den of Thieves 2 and Flight Risk), neither of which set the world on fire with $36M and $29.78M, respectively. Even the glitzy John Wick spinoff Ballerina opened at #2 and had to trudge to its ultimate $58M domestic/$131.77M global take. The first two films in the Now You See Me franchise have been global winners with $342.76 and $328.3M, respectively, although the second movie earned a bigger chunk overseas, a market that has been less reliable for solid returns in 2025.
2. The Running Man
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $25M
Pros
- Paramount’s big-budget remake of the campy 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger sci-fi vehicle The Running Man ($38.1M unadjusted) boasts emerging star Glen Powell (Twisters, Anyone but You) combined with writer/director Edgar Wright’s signature stylistic flash. This version promises to adhere more to the timely dystopian tone of Stephen King’s 1982 novel while giving audiences the same vigorous action that infused Wright’s 2016 sleeper Baby Driver ($107.8M domestic/$227.19M global). Although Running Man could have a photo finish with Predator: Badlands, we are seeing the potential upside veering toward this star-driven new release from a beloved helmer being greater than last week’s champ.
Cons
- Edgar Wright is arguably as well-regarded a commercial auteur as Guillermo Del Toro or James Gunn, but never quite had the box office breakouts those two enjoyed. The modestly-budgeted Cornetto Trilogy he made his name with (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, The World’s End) altogether took in $157M WW, while eccentric studio projects like Last Night in Soho ($10.1M) and the expensive Scott Pilgrim ($33M) both bottomed out domestically. We’ve heard reports of lagging pre-sales for Running Man, and with early mixed reactions (65% so far on Rotten Tomatoes critical) pointing toward a darker/R-rated/less general audience take on the property, we believe Now You See Me: Now You Don’t has the advantage.
3. Predator: Badlands
20th Century Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $22M
Pros
- 20th Century’s Predator: Badlands was a winner this past weekend with a franchise-record $40M stateside opening on top of some of the best word-of-mouth the aging series has seen since the John McTiernan-helmed original. The Predator’s overperformance last frame keeps the title in contention to climb as high as first this time around, but realistically, we think it’s destined for a third-place finish. The film it is currently being measured against is 20th Century’s Alien: Romulus, which earned $16.3M in its sophomore frame last year for a -61% drop. There’s a good chance Badlands could do better.
Cons
- In a strange turn of events, two films based on Schwarzenegger vehicles from 1987 will be competing against each other this weekend. Although we are giving Running Man the edge, this is one of the most competitive frames in ages, where any configuration of these three movies on the charts is possible. While the more accessible PG-13 rating for Badlands would conceivably give it the edge in this unique derby, the fact is that 17 and under’s only accounted for 6% of ticket buyers, and it will be this coming frame where the word may or may not trickle out that this one is more tween and teen friendly.
Share this post