The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 3 – 5, 2025
Week 40 | October 3 – 5, 2025
1. Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
AMC Distribution | NEW
Weekend Range: $30M – $40M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Taylor Swift is saving what would otherwise be a dire weekend—in a very similar scenario that saw KPop Demon Hunters break out in August. AMC Theatres’ distribution arm is addressing a gap in the schedule with the three-day theatrical run of Taylor Swift| The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. With an 89-minute runtime (perfect for squeezing in an extra showing or two per day), this picture is not so much a concert movie as a listening party, with behind-the-scenes and candid footage from the global pop superstar. This should make for a lively communal theatrical experience… with Swift encouraging dancing in the theater. This is a strategic addition to the release calendar, turning a gap in the schedule into an experience-driven injection of cash into the box office.
- It’s challenging to provide a definitive range for this title, as walk-ups could make or break the movie’s box office haul. A floor of $25M and ceiling of $50M seem a lot more realistic for us, with the majority of our panel of experts currently expecting a performance in the $30M’s with the potential to breakthrough to the $40M’s should business pick up over the weekend.
Cons
- Don’t expect anything close to the $90M+ opening weekend from the Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert film, as this is a strictly-for-the-fans affair. The cynical take on this title is calling it a glorified infomercial for Swift’s upcoming album, the sort of programming that would be available on cable music channels like VH1 and MTv 25 years ago. Exhibitors won’t complain about its inclusion into the schedule
2. The Smashing Machine
A24 | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
- Former wrestler Dwayne Johnson makes a long-awaited entry into the realm of the serious actor with The Smashing Machine, the true story of MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Based on John Hyams’ documentary of the same name, the film is helmed by Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems) in his first solo directing effort away from brother Josh, and co-stars powerhouse Emily Blunt. After much hoopla from festival play out of Venice and Toronto, the critical reviews are positive but not through the roof at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Johnson, as savvy a worker of the promotional circuit as there’s ever been, is a shoe-in for awards contention love based on a dedicated dramatic performance.
Cons
- Smashing Machine isn’t exactly a crowd-pleasing sports movie, more of a character study in the vein of The Iron Claw or The Wrestler. Despite early tracking that had the debut with a $20M outlook, we expect a performance between $10M and $15M, contesting with One Battle After Another for second place. Showtime marketshare advantage falls on the side of Smashing Machine (12% vs 8%), so we think it will edge out the PTA title.
3. One Battle After Another
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Warner Bros. managed the unlikely feat of turning a quirky PT Anderson picture into a #1 box office attraction and solid gold Oscar contender last weekend. One Battle After Another earned verified raves from critics and audiences while earning $22M (down from Sunday’s $22.4M estimate). While it faces fierce competition from Dwayne Johnson and Taylor Swift this frame, we can see a world where this film has a very low week-over-week drop and glides gracefully into second place ahead of Smashing Machine.
Cons
- One Battle‘s purported $100M+ budget plus marketing spend represents a big outlay from WB for what is essentially a ticket to the dance at next year’s Oscars. It’s a smart spend, though, when you consider how attractive this one film makes the studio to A-list talent. It was also a windfall for PLF exhibitors, whose screens represented over 50% of the take. Overall, even if this winds up being a write-down, it’s a loss leader in what has been an exemplary year for the $4 billion global grossing Warners.
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