The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 27 – 29, 2024
Week 39 | September 27 – 29, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 39, 2024: $65M — $85M
1. The Wild Robot
Universal Pictures/Dreamworks | NEW
Weekend Range: $25M – $32M
Showtime Marketshare: 21%
Pros
- Universal and Dreamworks’ The Wild Robot looks like the perfect antidote to last weekend’s Transformers One. Yes, they are both ostensibly animated films about automatons, but Transformers was the ninth theatrical entry in a 40-year-old franchise based on a toy line, while Wild Robot is the first movie based on Peter Brown’s series of best-selling children’s books which began in 2016. It looks to have a much gentler sensibility that could play better to younger children than the gun-toting Cybertron-ians, and reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival are stellar with a current 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has veteran animation genius Chris Sanders (Lilo & Stitch, The Croods, How to Train Your Dragon) directing, and Universal plans to give it a big Oscar push. According to Deadline, Wild Robot will have a lock on 380 IMAX screens except for primetime’s in metropolitan theaters when Lionsgate’s Megalopolis will play. Overall the movie is expected to play on 3900 screens, with 900 of those Premium Large Format including 3D.
Cons
- Original animated films tend to have a more difficult go of it than established animated franchises. Our forecast panel believes the performance should fall along the lines of Transformers One‘s modest take last weekend, but could get a Saturday-to-Sunday bump from positive word of mouth to hit the upper range of predictions. Unfortunately, The Wild Robot has a very similar look/story points to Brad Bird’s classic The Iron Giant, which was a box office disaster in 1999 with $23M cume on a $50M budget. Let’s hope this new picture doesn’t become the next well-regarded original animated movie to tank. Dreamworks itself has had a mixed run of late, with franchise hits like Kung Fu Panda 4 ($548M WW) and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish ($485.2M WW) alongside under-performers like Trolls World Tour ($209.6M WW) and The Bad Guys ($250.9M WW).
2. Transformers One
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- In a race for second, expect another close battle between Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Transformers One. Since the latter is a newer film, we expect it to narrowly win out against its ghostly competition this weekend, especially since it has the edge in Showtime Marketshare, according to the Boxoffice Company. There’s also a possibility that the Autobots could be in for a slow but steady rollout as the weeks go on. Even the Oscar-winning smash Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which was connected to the larger Marvel world, started slow with a $35M opening in 2018 but legged it out to an eventual $190M domestic take.
Cons
- Transformers One was expected to win last weekend, but instead got beaten by the third weekend of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in a photo finish ($25.9M to $24.6M after Monday actuals). The Wild Robot was always going to steal Transformers‘ thunder this coming frame, but with the added knee-capping of not being able to promote a #1 win Paramount has very little momentum to build off of. It’s also possible that the two competing animated robot movies could cannibalize each other, with Transformers pulling more dads/boys and Wild Robot garnering moms/girls since that one has Lupita Nyong’o in the lead as Roz.
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | Week 4
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- That potential cannibalization for the two animated releases could pave the way for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to finish second, depending on what that holdover looks like for Transformers One. The Tim Burton sequel actually beat Transformers on Monday with $1.6M to $1.2M, respectively, although that might be expected given that schools were in session. The domestic cume now stands at $230.9M, and it is looking likely that this title will eventually surpass the director’s 1989 blockbuster Batman ($251.1M) in the coming weeks to become the #2 Burton movie of all-time.
Cons
- Although Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will still have some IMAX play coming into its fourth weekend, a large number of large format and PLF screens will be taken over by The Wild Robot and Megalopolis. This will also likely be the last big weekend for this movie as the WB marketing machine refocuses on another white-faced creep with Joker: Folie à Deux opening on October 4. The horror audience will also be distracted away from the ghost with the most by three simultaneous major genre streaming releases, all launching October 3: Salem’s Lot, House of Spoils, and Hold Your Breath.
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