The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 29 – 31, 2025
Week 35 | August 29 – 31, 2025
1. Weapons
Warner Bros. | Week 4
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
- The box office anomaly that was KPop Demon Hunters knocked Weapons off its #1 perch with an amazing $19.2M (based on industry estimates) over only two of the three days of the prior frame. With that exclusive theatrical window behind us, Zach Cregger’s horror film has a chance to reclaim #1 for a third time before WB/New Line’s The Conjuring Last Rites invades the horrorscape. Since Weapons only fell -37% last weekend to bring in $15.4M it still has a lot of momentum, having now cleared $200M globally ($204M).
Cons
- Weapons should be able to pass the domestic performance of Final Destination: Bloodlines ($138.1M) in the next week or two to become the second-highest-grossing horror film of 2025, but that will probably be the end of the road for it when it comes to milestones. The KPop phenom kept the overall box office from sinking into the doldrums last frame, but there won’t be a Netflix to save the domestic market this weekend. Historically, the last weekend of August has always been a bad, bad, bad weekend. No exception here, but business will pick back up in September thanks to The Warrens keeping demons at bay.
2. Caught Stealing
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- Darren Aronofsky delivers a punk-tinged crime thriller in Caught Stealing, which follows an ex-baseballer navigating through NYC’s underworld. Early reviews trickling in appear solid but not spectacular. Star Austin Butler earned cache with Elvis and Dune: Part Two, though recent efforts The Bikeriders ($21.7M) and Eddington ($10.1M) have suggested a preference of working with interesting films rather than major blockbusters.
Cons
- Caught Stealing is locked in a race for first against Weapons, which we believe the latter horror flick will be able to steal back by Sunday. Aronofsky’s film has been losing steam in the weeks leading towards release, and there exists a chance the title could open in the high single digits. The director’s last two films, 2017’s mother! ($26.7M) and 2022’s The Whale ($36.59M), did not break the bank and—despite sequel potential with two other novels in Charlie Huston’s trilogy—Caught Stealing looks a little too niche for its own good.
3. Freakier Friday
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $5M – $6M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Freakier Friday has been holding surprisingly well, with a very light drop comparable to Weapons at -38% for an $8.89M Frame 3. With no real family competition, we expect another solid frame for this title as August comes to a close. Its closest new rival, The Roses, has a comparable allocation of showtimes this weekend but hasn’t moved the needle in advance ticket sales. We expect Freakier Friday to finish third above new releases The Roses and Cineverse’s The Toxic Avenger, with the two new titles finishing the weekend on the bottom half of the top ten.
Cons
- While The Roses and Toxic Avenger aren’t expected to challenge for third place, we are expecting a strong outing from Bruce the Shark in the 50th anniversary re-release of Jaws this weekend. Jaws enters fifth in showtime marketshare this weekend with 8% among all titles playing in the United States. Steven Spielberg’s sharktastic classic could bring in as much as $5M over the weekend, potentially stealing third place from Freakier Friday. At $71M domestic the Lindsay Lohan/Jamie Lee Curtis re-team is still nowhere near the $110.2M of the 2003 remake, and is unlikely to reach the $100M benchmark in its domestic run.
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