Weekend Projections: ‘The Girl on the Train’ Rides to $26.5M Debut; ‘The Birth of a Nation’ Eyes $7.5M; ‘Middle School’ Begins w/ $6.9M

Saturday Update: Universal reports that The Girl on the Train bowed to a healthy $9.35 million on Friday, including Thursday evening’s shows. That falls in line with Boxoffice’s pre-release expectations as it ended up being somewhat more front-loaded to Thursday than the comparable Gone Girl — which earned $13.2 million on opening day. Regardless, this is a great start for the mid-range budgeted thriller based on the popular novel as it heads toward a $26.5 million opening weekend in first place.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children claimed second place yesterday with $3.95 million, off 56 percent from opening day last week. Columbus Day weekend should boost grosses on Sunday as many schools are out of session on Monday. The Fox hit has earned $40 million through eight days of play as it aims for a $15.5 million sophomore frame.

Coming in third, Deepwater Horizon pulled $3.42 million yesterday, marking a 52 percent decline from its opening day last Friday. With $30.2 million in the bank, the drama thriller continues to enjoy positive word of mouth. Look for an $11.7 million second weekend.

The Birth of a Nation bowed in fourth place yesterday with $2.625 million. Unfortunately, that comes in shy of our initial expectations. We’re projecting a weekend of $7.5 million.

The Magnificent Seven rounded out the top five with $2.6 million as it now stands at $69.4 million total. This weekend should tally $9 million.

Last but not least, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life opened to $1.95 million yesterday. The tween-driven film should appeal well to those crowds over the (semi)holiday weekend as it hopes to generate around $6.9 million over the three-day frame.

Our key weekend projections are listed below. Official weekend estimates from the studios will be published on Sunday.

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Girl on the Train (2016) $26,500,000 3,144 $8,429 $26,500,000 1 Universal
2 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children $15,500,000 -46% 3,705 183 $4,184 $51,553,483 2 Fox
3 Deepwater Horizon $11,700,000 -42% 3,259 0 $3,590 $38,468,388 2 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Magnificent Seven (2016) $9,000,000 -42% 3,696 22 $2,435 $75,765,393 3 Sony / Columbia
5 Storks $8,000,000 -41% 3,608 -314 $2,217 $49,668,494 3 Warner Bros.
6 The Birth of a Nation (2016) $7,500,000 2,105 $3,563 $7,500,000 1 Fox Searchlight
7 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life $6,900,000 2,822 $2,445 $6,900,000 1 CBS Films / Lionsgate
8 Sully $5,100,000 -38% 3,058 -659 $1,668 $113,315,432 5 Warner Bros.
9 Masterminds (2016) $4,000,000 -39% 3,042 0 $1,315 $12,688,325 2 Relativity Studios
10 Queen of Katwe $1,500,000 -40% 1,259 17 $1,191 $5,266,636 3 Disney
11 Don’t Breathe $1,350,000 -43% 1,066 -587 $1,266 $86,921,355 7 Sony / TriStar
12 Snowden $670,000 -66% 1,821 0 $368 $20,133,078 4 Open Road
13 Sausage Party $450,000 137% 1,071 841 $420 $97,304,151 9 Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Suicide Squad $1,000,000 -48% 972 -666 $1,029 $322,423,924 10 Warner Bros.
2 Bridget Jones’s Baby $800,000 -66% 915 -1140 $874 $22,760,695 4 Universal
3 Blair Witch $525,000 -67% 668 -1160 $786 $20,204,309 4 Lionsgate
4 When the Bough Breaks $400,000 -67% 460 -441 $870 $29,265,880 5 Sony / Screen Gems
5 Finding Dory $350,000 140% 207 68 $1,691 $484,784,568 17 Disney
6 The Secret Life of Pets $305,000 -31% 339 -122 $900 $365,353,935 14 Universal
7 M.S. Dhoni: The Untold Story $285,000 -74% 233 -23 $1,223 $1,620,317 2 FIP
8 Hell or High Water $250,000 -50% 275 -245 $909 $26,214,442 9 CBS Films / Lionsgate
9 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $190,000 -40% 224 -216 $848 $75,019,131 9 Disney
10 No Manches Frida $143,000 -62% 138 -118 $1,036 $11,150,144 6 Lionsgate / Pantelion

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Friday Report: The Girl on the Train debuted to a very healthy $1.23 million on Thursday night, setting the stage for what should easily be a first place debut this weekend. By comparison, the adaptation of the popular novel fell just shy of Gone Girl‘s $1.3 million Thursday night start two years ago. That close proximity of those numbers could be misleading, though, as we expect Train to lean more heavily toward female moviegoers (while it also, unfortunately, doesn’t boast the strong reviews of Gone Girl). Along those lines, another apt comparison could be Bad Moms — a female-driven, R-rated comedy that earned $2.0 million on opening Thursday back in July.

Meanwhile, The Birth of a Nation checked in somewhere between $350,000 and $400,000 last night. We’ll update with more concrete numbers if and when they become available. That range would line up with Free State of Jones‘s $370,000 Thursday start back in June.

No numbers were reported for Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life at the time of publishing.

All told, while Girl aims for the top spot, Miss Peregrine and Deepwater Horizon should respectively fill out the second and third places over the weekend.

We’ll have official Friday estimates from the studios as well as our initial weekend projections on Saturday morning.

 

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