Weekend Estimates: ‘Black Panther’ Holds Course for $100M+ Sophomore Frame; ‘Game Night’ Healthy at $15M+; ‘Annihilation’ Pushes for $10M

Saturday Update: Marvel’s Black Panther cleared $28.858 million on Friday, lining up with our pre-release forecasts as it now stands at $320.8 million domestically in just eight days of release — the fourth highest of all-time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($440.2 million), Jurassic World ($325.3 million), and Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($321.4 million). The film is heading toward a sophomore weekend somewhere in the realm of $101 million based on historical trajectories.

By comparison, Panther‘s second Friday is another historic metric as it came in just below The Avengers‘ $29.2 million and Jurassic World‘s $29.1 million. This represents an impressive hold as buzz continues to fuel the superhero phenom. We continue to expect a possible $600 million+ domestic finish when all is said and done based on Panther‘s current pace of play.

Debuting in a solid second place was Game Night with an estimated $5.6 million, including Thursday night’s $1 million bow. The strongly reviewed original comedy fell a bit shy of the $6.5 million opening day of Office Christmas Party, but word of mouth and critical reviews are both very strong so far which leaves the moderately budgeted Game Night poised to enjoy a healthy, leggy run in the weeks ahead. We’re currently projecting a $15.5 million debut weekend based on Friday’s performance.

Annihilation posted a $3.86 million first day take, including Thursday night earnings. As expected heading into the weekend, that falls on the conservative end of where the film had been tracking, falling short of  Life ($4.4 million), Chappie ($4.5 million), and Transcendence ($4.8 million). With mixed word of mouth thus far and some likely frontloading by the source novel’s fan base, we’re expecting a weekend around $10 million based on yesterday’s trajectory.

Peter Rabbit continues to perform well with another $2.845 million in the bank yesterday, giving it $61.6 million through 15 days of play. Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five on Friday with $2.3 million and an updated cume of $84.95 million.

Meanwhile, Jumanji posted its largest Friday-to-Friday drop in over a month — a slim 28 percent from last week — to $1.34 million. With $382.97 million in the bank, it continues a possible march toward the $400 million domestic mark with what should be a $5.5 million weekend, according to Sony estimates.

Every Day opened to $1.078 million (including $115,000 from Thursday night), a healthy start for the low-budget Orion Pictures release that sets it in course for a $3.06 million weekend per studio projections.

Last but not least, The Greatest Showman added another $905,000 for an updated domestic haul of $158.3 million.

Check out our chart of early estimates below. Updated weekend estimates from the studios will follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, FEB. 23 – SUN, FEB. 25

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $101,000,000 -50% 4,020 0 $25,124 $392,954,422 2 Disney
2 Game Night $15,500,000 3,488 $4,444 $15,500,000 1 Warner Bros.
3 Peter Rabbit $12,900,000 -26% 3,707 -18 $3,480 $71,645,702 3 Sony / Columbia
4 Annihilation $10,000,000 2,012 $4,970 $10,000,000 1 Paramount Pictures
5 Fifty Shades Freed $6,900,000 -60% 3,265 -503 $2,113 $89,545,780 3 Universal
6 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $5,500,000 -31% 2,519 -281 $2,183 $387,134,215 10 Sony / Columbia
7 The 15:17 to Paris $3,800,000 -50% 2,752 -290 $1,381 $32,457,752 3 Warner Bros.
8 The Greatest Showman $3,375,000 -33% 1,601 -335 $2,108 $160,741,870 10 Fox
9 Every Day $3,060,000 1,625 $1,883 $3,060,000 1 Orion Pictures
10 Early Man $1,700,000 -47% 2,494 0 $682 $6,779,422 2 Lionsgate
11 Samson $900,000 -54% 1,140 -109 $789 $3,672,496 2 Pure Flix

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Post $1,245,000 -37% 795 -255 $1,566 $78,893,001 10 20th Century Fox
2 The Shape of Water $1,150,000 -31% 721 -236 $1,595 $55,335,844 13 Fox Searchlight
3 Winchester $975,000 -56% 852 -627 $1,144 $23,780,774 4 Lionsgate / CBS Films
4 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $875,000 -66% 952 -940 $919 $56,241,604 5 Fox
5 Coco $520,000 -25% 266 -119 $1,955 $208,083,010 14 Disney
6 Detective Chinatown 2 $490,000 -30% 111 -4 $4,414 $1,645,578 2 Warner Bros.
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $370,000 -40% 292 -59 $1,267 $618,745,718 11 Disney
8 Hostiles $360,000 -57% 418 -349 $861 $29,142,821 10 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
9 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $285,000 -81% 691 -89 $412 $49,189,579 20 Fox Searchlight
10 La Boda de Valentina $190,000 -64% 141 -190 $1,348 $2,469,634 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
11 Thor: Ragnarok $160,000 -18% 131 -18 $1,221 $314,835,002 17 Disney
12 Wonder (2017) $125,000 -38% 158 -35 $791 $131,903,732 15 Lionsgate
13 The Commuter $115,000 0% 138 -10 $833 $36,116,650 7 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Operation Red Sea $520,000 45 $11,556 $520,000 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
2 Monster Hunt 2 $120,000 -65% 55 -14 $2,182 $631,307 2 Lionsgate

 

 

===

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports this morning that Game Night bowed to a healthy $1.0 million from Thursday night’s first showings. By comparison, that’s generally in line with the $950,000 start of Office Christmas Party and The Boss‘s $985,000, setting the course for a weekend still expected to land in the mid-to-upper teen millions with a possible upshot at $20 million.

Annihilation took in $900,000 to begin its debut weekend. That’s slightly ahead of Life‘s $800,000 start last year, while also comping slightly ahead of Chappie ‘s $750,000 and Transcendence‘s $850,000.

Meanwhile, Black Panther won Thursday proper with another $14.3 million, per Disney estimates. In line with our pre-weekend forecasts, the Marvel phenom remains on track to handily top the box office in its second frame a weekend likely to top $100 million. The film’s Thursday take was the largest ever for an MCU title (besting Avengers‘ $12.4 million) and brought the seven-day cume to a stunning $292 million domestically. The film’s global total through Thursday stands at $520.1 million.

More updates throughout the weekend.

googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1553617519041-1'); });

News Stories