Early Weekend Estimates: ‘X-Men: Apocalypse’ Culls $61M/$74M 3-Day/4-Day Memorial Weekend Launch; ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’ Eyes $31M/$40M

Saturday Update: Fox reports this morning that X-Men: Apocalypse scored an estimated opening day of $26.4 million on Friday, including Thursday night’s $8.2 million start. As expected, the sequel proved noticeably more front-loaded to its early shows as the film came in 26 percent below the $35.5 million opening day of Days of Future Past on the same Memorial Weekend two years ago (despite Apocalypse opening at $8.2 million versus DOFP‘s $8.1 million on Thursday). The cause of this is undoubtedly mixed reviews (currently 48 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and comparatively lukewarm word of mouth (74 percent on Flixster versus DOFP’s 95 percent one day after release). All told, Apocalypse looks to unfortunately fall short of pre-release industry and studio expectations as it heads toward a $61 million three-day weekend and $74 million for the Memorial four-day frame.

Launching in second place yesterday was Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass with an estimated $9.723 million. That comes in 76 percent behind the first film’s March 2010 opening day and 60 percent behind the first day of 2014’s Maleficent. Reviews (28 percent) and early word of mouth (62 percent) aren’t encouraging for this weekend’s runner-up opener, which already faced an uphill battle coming six years after the original surprise blockbuster captured an early wave of 3D success in a post-Avatar market. Alice will aim to keep family audiences coming over the long weekend and in the weeks ahead, but that could prove challenging with various competitors coming up (including Disney’s own Finding Dory next month). Boxoffice is currently projecting Looking Glass to earn $31 million over the three-day frame and $40 million for the four-day.

The Angry Birds Movie took third place yesterday with $5.0 million, off 54 percent from opening day last week. With $52.65 million earned in eight days, Sony’s successful video game adaptation is trending 15 percent behind Rio 2. We’re projecting a healthy $20 million three-day take and $25.5 million four-day gross.

Meanwhile, Captain America: Civil War added $4.03 million (down 53 percent from last Friday) to bring its domestic cume up to $361.5 million. It’s heading for a $16.1 million/$21 million three-day/four-day split.

Capping off the top five, Neighbors 2 slid 68 percent from opening day last week to $2.8 million yesterday. With $32.0 million through eight days of play, the comedy sequel is unfortunately 57 percent behind the pace of its 2014 predecessor. Look for a $9.1 million three-day and $11.1 million four-day.

Below is our chart of early three-day weekend estimates, followed by four-day estimates of key titles. Studio estimates will be posted on Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by weekend actuals on Tuesday.

3-DAY ESTIMATES WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 X-Men: Apocalypse $61,000,000 4,150 $14,699 $61,000,000 1 Fox
2 Alice Through the Looking Glass $31,000,000 3,763 $8,238 $31,000,000 1 Disney
3 The Angry Birds Movie $20,000,000 -48% 3,932 0 $5,086 $67,653,309 2 Sony / Columbia
4 Captain America: Civil War $16,100,000 -51% 3,395 -831 $4,742 $373,575,948 4 Disney
5 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising $9,100,000 -58% 3,416 32 $2,664 $38,336,580 2 Universal
6 The Jungle Book (2016) $8,100,000 -26% 2,523 -937 $3,210 $339,611,909 7 Disney
7 The Nice Guys $6,400,000 -43% 2,865 0 $2,234 $21,763,672 2 Warner Bros.
8 Money Monster $4,100,000 -42% 2,315 -789 $1,771 $33,752,226 3 Sony / TriStar
9 The Darkness $845,000 -63% 1,004 -765 $842 $9,957,379 3 High Top / BH Tilt

3-DAY ESTIMATES LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Love & Friendship $2,500,000 347% 493 446 $5,071 $3,493,548 3 Roadside / Amazon
2 Zootopia $825,000 -51% 572 -805 $1,442 $335,868,645 13 Disney
3 The Lobster $750,000 93% 116 92 $6,466 $1,967,934 10 A24
4 A Bigger Splash $360,000 9% 378 250 $952 $1,272,851 4 Fox Searchlight
5 The Huntsman: Winter’s War $305,000 -75% 374 -872 $816 $47,435,745 6 Universal
6 Mother’s Day (2016) $195,000 -83% 335 -1384 $582 $32,078,943 5 Open Road
7 The Boss $185,000 -72% 231 -441 $801 $62,645,100 8 Universal
8 Sing Street $105,000 -70% 175 -345 $600 $2,750,974 7 Weinstein Company

4-Day Estimates
1. X-Men: Apocalypse – $74.0 million
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass – $40.0 million
3. The Angry Birds Movie – $25.5 million
4. Captain America: Civil War – $21.0 million
5. The Jungle Book – $11.4 million
6. Neighbors 2 – $11.1 million
7. The Nice Guys – $7.8 million
8. Money Monster – $5.2 million
9. Love & Friendship – $3.3 million
10. Zootopia – $1.2 million
11. The Darkness – $1.1 million