Long Range Box Office Forecast: BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE, MADAME WEB, and THE CHOSEN: SEASON 4 EPISODES 4 – 6

Photo courtesy The Chosen Inc.; Photo courtesy Paramount Pictures; Photo by Beth Dubber, courtesy CMTG Sony

With Valentine’s Day landing on Wednesday this year, studios are getting a jump on the long weekend that will be bookended by Presidents Day the following Monday. Here’s a look at how expectations for those releases are shaping up so far.

Bob Marley: One Love

Paramount Pictures

February 14, 2024

3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $11M-$16M
Domestic Total Range: $35M-$69M

WEEKEND PROS:

  • Biopic Bob Marley: One Love could be an appealing option over the long holiday frame given the hopeful nature of Marley’s music and life-affirming philosophies.
  • Madame Web will hope to court comic book fans over the date-friendly Valentine’s debut, with particular interest surrounding co-star Sydney Sweeney’s social media pull in the wake of Anyone But You‘s sleeper success. Reception will need to be strong in the wake of what’s tracking to be a debut closer to the likes of Birds of Prey and Morbius than the fellow Spider-Man spin-off Venom films.
  • The Chosen will likely again draw from its core faith-based audience, a crowd that has shown up in very respectable numbers for previous episode debuts in theaters.

Madame Web

Sony / Columbia Pictures

February 14, 2024

3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $56M-$101M

WEEKEND CONS:

  • Biopics such as One Love can be challenging to sell in today’s marketplace, where similar films have dominated the streaming landscape. Likewise, the target adult audience that’s most familiar with Marley has also proven in this day and age to be more selective with what films bring them out to theaters.
  • Similarly, post-pandemic, comic book movies are no longer an automatic hot commodity among general audiences unless there’s a significant hook. Based on a character less familiar outside the core fanbase, Madame Web has work to do with an early marketing campaign that has often become meme-worthy in various online social circles.
  • As a tried-and-true brand with non-premiere and non-finale episodes debuting, it’s feasible that even the Chosen franchise’s fans may feel less urgency to see these middle chapters outside their homes.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/18/24)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
1/26/2024 Miller’s Girl         Lionsgate
1/26/2024 Underdoggs         United Artists
1/26/2024 The Concierge         Sony / Crunchyroll
1/26/2024 Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited)         Focus Features
2/1/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 $7,000,000 – $11,000,000   $11,000,000 – $18,000,000   Fathom Events
2/2/2024 Argylle $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 -7% $65,000,000 – $95,000,000 -23% Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films
2/2/2024 Scrambled $2,000,000 – $5,000,000   $4,500,000 – $14,000,000   Lionsgate
2/8/2024 2 Win         Lionsgate
2/9/2024 Lisa Frankenstein $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $23,000,000 – $46,000,000   Focus Features
2/9/2024 The Origin         Bleecker Street
2/9/2024 Turning Red         Disney / Pixar
2/14/2024 Bob Marley: One Love $11,000,000 – $16,000,000   $35,000,000 – $69,000,000   Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024 Madame Web $25,000,000 – $35,000,000   $56,000,000 – $101,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 $6,000,000 – $10,000,000   $9,000,000 – $16,000,000   Fathom Events

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

Photo courtesy The Chosen Inc.; Photo courtesy Paramount Pictures; Photo by Beth Dubber, courtesy CMTG Sony

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