Long Range Box Office Forecast: Elvis and The Black Phone, Plus a Jurassic World Dominion Update

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. Pictures ("Elvis"); Universal Pictures ("The Black Phone")

With summer in full swing, this week’s tracking report spotlights two counter-programming wide releases set for the final weekend of June.

Additionally, updated tracking ranges for June 10’s Jurassic World Dominion and current forecasts for Lightyear are in the chart below.

Elvis
Warner Bros. Pictures
June 24, 2022

PROS:

  • The iconic superstar is due a major Hollywood biopic, and generations of fans could help continue the recovery of moviegoing this summer among the 45+ crowd. Family appeal could moderately surprise, especially among women, due to the handed-down generational popularity of Elvis Presley.
  • Social and trailer imprints are healthy as marketing has made a strong presence in recent months with spots running ahead of major theatrical blockbusters and during key television events. Initial models are tracking slightly ahead of Rocketman at the same point before pre-sales begin.
  • The presence of Tom Hanks in a major supporting role, as well as director Baz Luhrmann’s success with The Great Gatsby remake and Moulin Rouge, provide further selling points. Early reviews are encouraging with an 86 percent Rotten Tomatoes score thus far.
  • With an expected PLF play, minimal direct competition, and room to coexist with other summer blockbusters, the runway for Elvis is long through the second half of summer.

CONS:

  • It’s bit of a wild card prediction forecasting Luhrmann’s films given his unique artistic touch that aims to blend modernity with classic themes. That’s especially important to consider with this film since Elvis is now generations removed from the pop culture forefront outside of his fan base.

    On a similar note, Hanks’ role in this film isn’t quite the same endearing character he’s come to be known for.
  • This is yet another significant test of the mid-range, adult-leaning film market in the middle of a summer that may tell us a great deal what movies older demographics will return to the theater for. Some front-loading could be possible depending on how diverse opening weekend plays out.

The Black Phone
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse
June 24, 2022

PROS:

  • Horror films and their youthful draw have proven important during pandemic recovery for movie theaters, and early models are indicative of a mid-range genre hit for this release. Reviews are currently at 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes from 14 critics.
  • Star Ethan Hawke and director Scott Derrickson (Doctor Strange) have found previous success in the horror/thriller genre with the 2012 film, Sinister.
  • As a counter-programmer to the weekend’s headlining opener, Black Phone‘s strength will be with young audiences and Blumhouse fans. Initial tracking metrics before tickets go on sale are trending ahead of last year’s Old.

CONS:

  • Although Thor: Love and Thunder and Nope will provide hefty market competition in July, they’re spaced two and four weeks away, respectively.
  • Cultural moods could be volatile for a film about children in danger in the wake of May 24’s tragic school shooting in Uvalde, Texas.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/26/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/3/2022 Crimes of the Future         NEON
6/10/2022 Jurassic World Dominion $160,000,000 – $210,000,000 -8% $443,000,000 – $590,000,000 -8% Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear $90,000,000 – $120,000,000   $300,000,000 – $415,000,000   Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone $17,000,000 – $22,000,000   $45,000,000 – $70,000,000   Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   $110,000,000 – $170,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru         Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder         Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest         STXfilms
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank         Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing         Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope         Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets         Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance         Focus Features

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.