This week’s report looks ahead to a potentially notable release slated for the second frame of February, which hosts the Super Bowl game on Sunday.
Lisa Frankenstein
Focus Features
February 9, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $9M-$14M
Domestic Total Range: $23M-$46M
PROS:
- Led by rising stars Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse, popular among Gen Z audiences, this horror-comedy take on the classic Frankenstein tale could be appealing to young women (as well as fans of writer Diablo Cody). Tailwind interest from the ongoing arthouse and award circuit success of Poor Things could also be beneficial.
- Counter-programming the big game with a female-driven film has proven successful for various studios on Super Bowl weekend in past years. The most apparent comparable here is 2013’s Warm Bodies, which debuted to $20.35 million on Super Bowl weekend and similarly boasted a youth-friendly cast and premise.
CONS:
- It’s been 7 years since any film opened to more than $13 million during the Sunday-depressed sporting weekend. That was 2017’s Rings reboot.
- It remains to be seen how strong Lisa‘s marketing push will be, as it hails from Focus Features. Outside of the Downton Abbey and Five Shades of Grey franchises, their promotional history is conservative relative to parent studio Universal’s often more aggressive advertising for original films.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/11/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 1/19/2024 | I.S.S. | $2,000,000 – $6,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 | Bleecker Street | |
| 1/19/2024 | Origin | NEON | |||
| 1/26/2024 | Miller’s Girl | Lionsgate | |||
| 1/26/2024 | Underdoggs | United Artists | |||
| 1/26/2024 | The Concierge | Sony / Crunchyroll | |||
| 1/26/2024 | Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited) | Focus Features | |||
| 2/1/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 | Fathom Events | |
| 2/2/2024 | Argylle | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $105,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films | |
| 2/2/2024 | Scrambled | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 | Lionsgate | |
| 2/8/2024 | 2 Win | Lionsgate | |||
| 2/9/2024 | Lisa Frankenstein | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Focus Features | |
| 2/9/2024 | The Origin | Bleecker Street | |||
| 2/9/2024 | Turning Red | Disney / Pixar |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
Share this post