Long Range Forecast — November 14, 2025
The Running Man | Paramount
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Glen Powell’s emergence as a leading man will be tested in holiday season tentpole The Running Man, based on a dystopian sci-fi novella by Stephen King in which reality TV show contestants must avoid the professional assassins—and everyday people—trying to hunt him down for a cash reward.
Outside of streaming titles like Hit Man (Netflix) or Chad Powers (Hulu), Powell’s most prominent starring roles have been in 2023 romcom Anyone But You ($6M domestic opening) and July 2024’s Twisters ($81.2M domestic opening). For his theatrical debut as a solo action lead, Powell teams with director Edgar Wright, director of the Cornetto Trilogy (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, The World’s End), Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, and—within the last ten years—2017’s Baby Driver ($20.5M domestic opening) and 2021’s Last Night in Soho ($4.1M domestic opening). With its holiday season placement and King’s name recognition among even casual moviegoers, The Running Man is expected to be the highest opener of Wright’s career so far—though King’s name doesn’t always translate to big bucks, as seen by September 2025’s The Long Walk ($11.7M) and November 2019’s Doctor Sleep ($14.1M).
Potentially helpful in holdover weeks is The Running Man‘s placement on the calendar as one of a small number of adult-oriented action films (along with the previous week’s Predator: Badlands, the following week’s Sisu: The Revenge, and Lionsgate’s re-release of Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair) that will be in theaters alongside the mostly family-friendly fare (ie Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash) opening during the holiday season. Previous examples of adult-skewing titles opening in the first half of November include Terminator: Dark Fate ($29M domestic opening) and Gladiator II ($55M domestic opening), both from Paramount; a bit earlier on the calendar, but also a sci-fi film featuring an up-and-coming actor in his first prominent action role, is Dune: Part One ($41M), released by Warner Bros. in late October 2022.
Tracking Updates [as of October 10]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 10/10 | Roofman | $7M – $10M | Paramount |
| 10/10 | Soul on Fire | $2M – $4M | Sony / Affirm |
| 10/10 | Tron: Ares | $40M – $48M | Disney |
| 10/10 | Kiss of the Spider Woman | $1M – $3M | Lionsgate |
| 10/17 | Black Phone 2 | $20M – $28M | Universal |
| 10/17 | Good Fortune | $10M – $15M | Lionsgate |
| 10/17 | Truth & Treason | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
| 10/24 | Regretting You | $17M – $25M | Paramount |
| 10/24 | Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc | $7M – $10M | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| 10/24 | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nothing | $15M – $25M | Disney |
| 10/31 | Bugonia (Expansion) | $2M – $4M | Focus Features |
| 11/7 | Christy (Expansion) | $4M – 8M | Black Bear Pictures |
| 11/7 | Predator: Badlands | $35M – $45M | Disney / 20th Century Fox |
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