Weekend Projections: ‘Sully’ Soars to Excellent $34.5M Debut; ‘When the Bough Breaks’ Eyes $14.4M; ‘Don’t Breathe’ to Add $8.2M

Saturday Update: Warner Bros. reports that Sully took in an excellent $12.205 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $1.35 million start. That easily soars past the $5.37 million opening day of fellow Tom Hanks-led Bridge of Spies ($5.37 million) last year, as well as the $8.77 million first day of Black Mass and the $8.49 million of Captain Phillips. The studio reports the film received a strong “A” CinemaScore and earned $1.35 million of its opening day gross from IMAX alone. Word of mouth certainly appears off to a strong start with an 87 percent score on Flixster this morning, adding on to its 84 percent critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Boxoffice projects a fantastic $34.5 million opening weekend.

Meanwhile, When the Bough Breaks scored $5.28 million yesterday, noticeably down from The Perfect Guy and No Good Deed which opened on the same weekend over the past two Septembers. The film should net around $14.4 million in second place this weekend. Lionsgate’s The Wild Life also debuted this weekend, pulling in a mere $729,000 yesterday. It looks to bring in around $2.8 million this weekend.

Official studio estimates will be published on Sunday morning. Below are our initial weekend projections based on Friday’s figures.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Sully $34,500,000 3,525 $9,787 $34,500,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 When the Bough Breaks $14,400,000 2,246 $6,411 $14,400,000 1 Sony / Screen Gems
3 Don’t Breathe $8,200,000 -48% 3,384 333 $2,423 $66,823,158 3 Sony / TriStar
4 Suicide Squad $5,500,000 -45% 3,103 -189 $1,772 $307,257,853 6 Warner Bros.
5 Kubo and the Two Strings $3,400,000 -47% 2,335 -650 $1,456 $41,017,680 4 Focus
6 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $2,850,000 -55% 2,685 -587 $1,061 $69,898,653 5 Disney
7 The Wild Life (2016) $2,800,000 2,493 $1,123 $2,800,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
8 Bad Moms $2,700,000 -43% 1,888 -418 $1,430 $107,396,266 7 STX Entertainment
9 Hell or High Water $2,500,000 -44% 1,445 142 $1,730 $19,723,734 5 CBS Films / Lionsgate
10 Sausage Party $2,300,000 -56% 2,071 -695 $1,111 $93,182,579 5 Sony / Columbia
11 War Dogs $2,000,000 -58% 1,781 -1067 $1,123 $39,774,718 4 Warner Bros.
12 The Light Between Oceans $1,900,000 -60% 1,500 0 $1,267 $9,511,026 2 Disney / DreamWorks
13 Jason Bourne $1,850,000 -53% 1,510 -466 $1,225 $158,831,290 7 Universal
14 Mechanic: Resurrection $1,600,000 -64% 1,901 -357 $842 $18,546,261 3 Lionsgate / Summit
15 The Secret Life of Pets $1,500,000 -58% 1,410 -659 $1,064 $361,797,775 10 Universal
16 The Disappointments Room $1,100,000 1,554 $708 $1,100,000 1 Relativity Studios
17 Florence Foster Jenkins $885,000 -58% 1,062 -279 $833 $25,754,803 5 Paramount
18 Morgan $480,000 -76% 2,020 0 $238 $3,573,471 2 20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 No Manches Frida $2,200,000 -40% 465 103 $4,731 $7,418,782 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion
2 Star Trek Beyond $920,000 -63% 748 -454 $1,230 $156,565,627 8 Paramount
3 Finding Dory $518,000 -75% 490 -1585 $1,057 $483,649,077 13 Disney
4 Ice Age: Collision Course $285,000 -58% 309 -383 $922 $63,183,040 8 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Naam Hai Akira $17,000 -88% 51 -20 $333 $213,461 2 FIP

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Friday Report: Warner Bros. reports this morning that Sully took off with $1.35 million from Thursday evening’s opening shows, marking a strong start to the weekend for the Clint Eastwood-helmed biopic starring Tom Hanks. By comparison, that figure handily tops the $500,000 earned by last year’s Bridge of Spies, as well as the $600,000 of 2013’s Captain Phillips.

While early signs lean toward a weekend north of $25 million (and possibly closer to Boxoffice’s most recent forecast of $30 million), it’s worth noting that last year’s Black Mass took in a similar $1.4 million on Thursday night before finishing the weekend with $22.6 million. That being said, Sully is widely expected to be a stronger crowd-pleaser, and with IMAX earnings in tow, it should remain a significant draw among adults starved for dramatic storytelling after the long summer.

Unfortunately, figures for When the Bough Breaks and The Wild Life were not available at the time of publishing. Several unconfirmed reports indicate those films did not screen in a significant number of theaters last night.

We’ll have official Friday estimates and weekend projections for key titles on Saturday morning. Check back then.

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